Germany host Serbia at the Allianz Arena in Munich on Thursday, October 1, with both teams still seeking their first win in Group A2 of the UEFA Nations League. Germany sit third after a draw and a defeat, while fourth-placed Serbia have lost both of their opening matches. Neither side occupies a progression spot, making this meeting important for two teams trying to change the direction of their campaign. Germany have home advantage, but their recent defensive record leaves room for Serbia to pose a threat.

Germany's Recent Form and Key Stats

Germany were beaten 1-0 by Greece on September 27, conceding the decisive goal in the 74th minute. That result left Jurgen Klopp without a win from his first two Nations League matches as national coach. Germany have taken one point from those games, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match in the competition.

Across their last five matches in all competitions, Germany have recorded one win, two draws and two defeats. Their averages over that stretch are 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded per game. They have also conceded in nine of their last ten matches, a trend they will want to address against a Serbia side that has scored once in each of its two Nations League defeats.

Germany's second-half figures suggest that the match may develop after the interval. At least one goal, counting both teams, has been scored in the second half of their last 17 home matches and their last 13 Nations League matches. The same has been true in 31 of Germany's last 32 games overall. Those are match-goal trends rather than goals scored by Germany alone, but they underline how rarely their recent fixtures have stayed quiet throughout the second half.

Serbia's Recent Form and Key Stats

Serbia travel to Munich after a 2-1 home defeat to the Netherlands on September 27. It followed another 2-1 home loss against Greece in their opening Group A2 match. With no points from two games, Serbia are averaging 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded per Nations League fixture.

The broader form is also difficult for the visitors: Serbia have won once and lost four times in their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goal while conceding 2.6. They have lost eight of their last 11 games, although the remaining three were wins. Their last four matches away from home, including fixtures at neutral venues, have all ended in defeat, with 13 goals conceded across that run.

There are contrasting goals patterns in Serbia's Nations League results. Each of their last 11 matches in the competition has finished with fewer than 3.5 total goals, and each of those games has had fewer than 1.5 goals in the first half. Yet at least one first-half goal has been scored in Serbia's last ten matches across all competitions. They have also trailed at half-time in six of their last ten, so their early-game record deserves attention even though their recent Nations League fixtures have generally remained below the 3.5-goal mark.

Germany vs Serbia Match Analysis

This Germany vs Serbia preview brings together two teams under pressure for different reasons. Germany have yet to win in Group A2, and their 1-0 loss to Greece showed that an improvement is needed in front of goal. Serbia have scored in both of their group matches, but conceding twice on each occasion has left them without a point. Their four defeats in their last five games and their recent away results make this a demanding trip.

The most recent meeting between the sides ended 1-1 on March 20, 2019. Across the three head-to-head matches covered by the supplied record, Germany have one win, one draw and one defeat, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. That balanced history offers little reason to assume an easy game, particularly while Germany continue to concede regularly.

Even so, the current comparison favours the hosts. Germany's one draw from two Nations League matches gives them a narrow start-of-group advantage over Serbia, whose two defeats have both come at home. Serbia's run of four losses in five matches adds to the challenge of facing Germany in Munich. If the hosts can limit the chances that their recent defensive record has allowed opponents, they have a clear opportunity to claim their first win of this Nations League campaign.

Germany vs Serbia prediction from BetMines: Germany win (1) with 77% probability.