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Prediction published on Oct 29, 2025 1:23 PM by Dario in Spain - Copa Del Rey | Modified on Oct 29, 2025 1:26 PM
The opening round of the Copa del Rey brings an intriguing Basque encounter as CD Getxo host Deportivo Alavés. The home side arrive with confidence after edging past Betis Valladolid in the preliminary stage, while the visitors seek redemption following a narrow league defeat at Rayo Vallecano. Despite the difference in divisions, the magic of the cup often levels the playing field, and Getxo will look to use their home advantage to challenge a top-flight opponent.
CD Getxo come into this tie in good spirits after a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Betis CF earlier in October. That result extended their unbeaten run to two matches, with 1 win and 1 draw so far in the competition. The team has shown balance between attack and defense, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game in the Copa del Rey. Such numbers reflect a disciplined side capable of staying compact while taking advantage of scoring opportunities.
Playing at home could be a decisive factor for Getxo. Their recent performances in front of their supporters have been encouraging, and the players will be motivated by the chance to face a La Liga opponent. Although they are underdogs, the team’s recent form suggests they can make life difficult for their visitors. The key for Getxo will be maintaining defensive organization and capitalizing on any counterattacking chances that arise.
Deportivo Alavés travel to the Basque coast after a frustrating 1-0 defeat to Rayo Vallecano on October 26. That result left them mid-table in La Liga, sitting in 12th place with 12 points, three above the relegation zone. Under coach Eduardo “Chacho” Coudet, the team’s main objective remains securing top-flight survival, but the Copa del Rey offers a valuable opportunity to regain confidence and momentum.
In their last five matches, Alavés have recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Their away form has been consistent in terms of low-scoring encounters: Under 2.5 goals have been recorded in each of their last nine away fixtures, and Under 3.5 goals in 19 of their last 20 overall. Despite their modest attacking output, Alavés remain difficult to break down, often relying on defensive solidity and patience to control matches.
Historically, Alavés have experience in European competitions and are accustomed to high-pressure fixtures. Facing a lower-tier opponent could allow them to rotate the squad slightly while still fielding a competitive lineup. The visitors will aim to dominate possession and impose their superior technical quality, but they must remain alert to avoid a potential upset.
This Copa del Rey clash promises a fascinating contrast in styles. Getxo will likely adopt a compact defensive shape, seeking to frustrate their opponents and exploit transitions. Their recent efficiency in front of goal suggests they can be dangerous if given space. On the other hand, Alavés are expected to control the tempo, using their experience and tactical discipline to break down the hosts’ resistance.
Given the visitors’ recent trend of low-scoring away games, the match could be tight and decided by small details. Alavés’ defensive structure and Getxo’s resilience point toward a cautious opening phase, with the top-flight side gradually asserting dominance. The key battle may unfold in midfield, where Alavés’ superior physicality and passing range could tilt the balance in their favor.
For Getxo, maintaining concentration and avoiding early mistakes will be crucial. If they can hold firm through the first hour, the pressure may shift to Alavés, who have struggled to convert chances in recent outings. However, the visitors’ quality and depth should ultimately make the difference as the match progresses.
The most likely outcome is a Deportivo Alavés win (2) with a 76% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 16%, while a CD Getxo win (1) stands at just 7%. Given the visitors’ superior squad and experience, Alavés are expected to advance to the next round, though Getxo’s fighting spirit could ensure a competitive contest.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Getxo
Deportivo Alavés
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
5
5
0
10
1.5
5
5
2
8
2.5
5
5
4
6
3.5
10
0
6
4
4.5
10
0
7
3