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Gil Vicente
1 - 1
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Marítimo
Prediction published on Sep 17, 2026 2:43 PM by Dario in Portugal - Liga Portugal | Modified on Sep 17, 2026 2:43 PM
Gil Vicente and Marítimo meet on September 19, 2026, at 14:30 local time in the seventh round of Liga Portugal. The fixture takes place at the Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, with both teams seeking a much-needed positive result after difficult recent runs. Gil Vicente are ninth in the league ranking, while Marítimo occupy tenth place, and both sides have collected seven points. The hosts enter the match after two consecutive defeats and three games without a victory. The visitors are under even greater pressure following three straight losses and a four-match winless sequence. Gil Vicente's stronger defensive record and encouraging head-to-head numbers provide reasons for confidence, but Marítimo's scoring average suggests that the home side cannot afford to relax.
Gil Vicente began the season positively, recording two successive victories in their opening completed league fixtures, with their second-round match against Braga postponed. That early momentum has since faded. They are now without a win in three games and have suffered back-to-back defeats, leaving them in need of a response on their return to home surroundings.
Their latest match ended in a 3-1 defeat against Benfica on September 13. Gil Vicente took the lead through Héctor Hernández, but they were unable to contain Benfica's reaction. Hernández remains the team's leading scorer with three goals, making him one of the central figures in the home side's attempt to rediscover its winning touch.
Across their last five matches, Gil Vicente have registered two wins, one draw and two defeats. They have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game during that period. Their Liga Portugal season record is also balanced, with two victories, one draw and two losses, alongside averages of 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 allowed. Those numbers underline a side whose matches have generally been shaped by narrow margins rather than sustained attacking output.
Bassco Soyer has recovered from injury and has already returned to action with the under-23 side. However, Weverson Costa, Mohamed Bamba, Arthur Tchaptchet and Walace França are still recovering from physical problems. Even with those absences, the hosts can draw encouragement from having won twice at the Estádio Cidade de Barcelos earlier in the campaign.
Marítimo also opened their league campaign with two consecutive victories, but their form has deteriorated sharply. They have now lost three matches in succession and have gone four games without winning. Their latest setback was a 3-1 loss against Moreirense on September 14, extending a run in which defensive vulnerability has become increasingly costly.
The visitors have conceded six goals while scoring only once across their last two matches. Over their previous five fixtures, Marítimo have recorded one win, one draw and three defeats, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. Their broader Liga Portugal record stands at two wins, one draw and three defeats, with averages of 1.2 goals for and 1.8 against per game.
Although Marítimo's scoring average is higher than Gil Vicente's, their defensive figures are significantly weaker. That imbalance helps explain why their positive start has given way to a three-game losing streak. The visitors have also seen at least one second-half goal in each of their last 12 matches, indicating that the period after the interval has repeatedly produced decisive action.
Simo Bouzaidi, Nathanael Ogbeta and Yellu Santiago are injured and are expected to miss the seventh league round. Their absence adds another complication for a team already trying to halt its poorest run of the season.
This Liga Portugal contest brings together two teams level on points but carrying different statistical profiles. Gil Vicente have been less productive in attack, yet their average of only 0.8 goals conceded in both their recent five-match sample and the league season highlights greater defensive stability. Marítimo, by contrast, have scored more frequently but have allowed 2.2 goals per match over their last five outings.
The head-to-head record also favors the hosts. Gil Vicente have collected four wins and one draw across the supplied five-match summary against Marítimo, averaging 1.6 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded. The most recent meeting ended in a 2-0 victory for Gil Vicente on March 5, 2023. That history, combined with home advantage and Marítimo's three consecutive defeats, gives Gil Vicente the stronger foundation before kick-off.
Nevertheless, the numbers do not point to a guaranteed home victory. The win probabilities give Gil Vicente a 50% chance, compared with 26% for the draw and 24% for Marítimo. The goals markets are similarly balanced: Both Teams To Score stands at 52% for Yes, while Under 2.5 goals also carries a 52% probability. Such narrow margins suggest a competitive match in which Gil Vicente's defensive cohesion could be important, especially if the hosts can limit a visiting side that has still averaged 1.2 goals per game.
The safest conclusion is that Gil Vicente are better placed to avoid defeat. They possess the stronger recent defensive average, have encouraging home results from the start of the season and remain unbeaten across the supplied head-to-head summary. Marítimo's defensive decline gives the hosts an opportunity, but the possibility of a draw remains relevant because both clubs arrive without momentum and level on seven points.
Gil Vicente vs Marítimo prediction from BetMines: Gil Vicente or Draw (1X) with 76% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Gil Vicente
Marítimo
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
0
10
1.5
4
6
2
8
2.5
7
3
4
6
3.5
7
3
7
3
4.5
10
0
9
1