The fifth round of the Argentine Liga Profesional de Fútbol brings one of the most anticipated fixtures of the season: the La Plata derby between Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata and Estudiantes de La Plata. Scheduled for Sunday at 17:00 local time, this clash at the Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo promises intensity, history, and a passionate atmosphere. Both sides arrive with contrasting dynamics, yet the stakes remain equally high — pride, momentum, and local supremacy are all on the line.

Gimnasia La Plata: Seeking Redemption at Home

Gimnasia La Plata enter this derby looking to bounce back from a 2-0 defeat against Barracas Central on February 9, 2026. Despite that setback, their home form has been encouraging, with victories over Racing Club (2-1) and Aldosivi (3-1) earlier in the campaign. Ranked 6th in the league, the “Lobo” have shown resilience in front of their fans, even if consistency remains an issue.

Across their last five matches, Gimnasia have recorded 2 wins and 3 losses, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Their season record stands at 2 wins and 2 defeats, with an average of 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match. Interestingly, they have not drawn any of their last 21 league fixtures, a sign of their all-or-nothing approach.

Statistically, Gimnasia’s matches tend to be tight affairs. Under 3.5 goals have been recorded in 38 of their last 40 games, and at least one team has failed to score in the second half in 37 of those. Moreover, Under 1.5 goals at half time have been seen in 18 of their last 20 home matches. These trends suggest a cautious start and limited scoring opportunities, especially in the early stages of the game.

• Last 5 matches: 2W – 0D – 3L


• Average goals scored: 1.0 | Conceded: 1.4


• No draws in last 21 league matches


• Under 3.5 goals in 38 of last 40 games

Estudiantes de La Plata: Consistent and Confident

Estudiantes de La Plata arrive in excellent form, unbeaten in their first four league matches (2 wins, 2 draws). Their latest result was a 1-0 home victory over Deportivo Riestra on February 9, 2026. Ranked 4th in the table, the “Pincha” have combined defensive solidity with clinical finishing, averaging 1.0 goal scored and just 0.5 conceded per match this season.

Over their last five outings, Estudiantes have achieved 3 wins and 2 draws, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game while conceding only 0.4. Their defensive discipline is reflected in the fact that Under 3.5 goals have been recorded in each of their last 19 league matches, and Under 2.5 goals in their last 10 away fixtures. Additionally, at least one team has failed to score at half time in their last 29 league games, underlining their cautious and structured approach.

Historically, Estudiantes have dominated this rivalry, losing only once in the last 26 encounters. The most recent head-to-head, played on December 8, 2025, ended 1-0 in their favor. In the last five meetings, Gimnasia have failed to win, with a record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, scoring just 0.4 goals per game while conceding 1.6 on average.

• Last 5 matches: 3W – 2D – 0L


• Average goals scored: 1.6 | Conceded: 0.4


• Under 2.5 goals in last 10 away matches


• Unbeaten in 26 of last 27 derbies vs Gimnasia

Gimnasia vs Estudiantes: Tactical Overview and Prediction

This edition of the La Plata derby is expected to follow the traditional pattern of tight, low-scoring contests. Both teams have shown strong defensive tendencies, with Under 3.5 goals appearing consistently in their recent records. Gimnasia’s attacking output has been modest, while Estudiantes’ defensive organization has been one of their main strengths.

Given the statistical trends and head-to-head history, a cautious match seems likely, with few clear chances and a strong emphasis on defensive discipline. Gimnasia will rely on their home advantage and passionate support to break a two-and-a-half-year winless streak in the derby, while Estudiantes will aim to extend their dominance and maintain their unbeaten start to the season.

In terms of probabilities, the balance slightly favors the visitors: Gimnasia win 33%, Draw 28%, and Estudiantes win 38%. The likelihood of Under 2.5 goals stands at 51%, reinforcing the expectation of a tight, tactical battle.

Gimnasia La Plata vs Estudiantes de La Plata prediction from BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 51% probability.