At Estadi Montilivi, Girona and Atlético Madrid face off on Matchday 38 of La Liga, in the final act of a season that has fallen short of expectations for both sides. The Catalan club failed to replicate the incredible form of last season, when—against all predictions—they finished third and secured a historic Champions League qualification. The lack of experience in managing midweek European fixtures, combined with the sale of many key players, has been a major factor in their collapse. This season, Girona has not only been out of the European qualification race but also found themselves involved in the relegation battle, from which they emerged only in the final weeks of the campaign. Michel’s side enters this fixture without pressure but aims to finish the season on a high, possibly gifting their fans a prestigious home win. Standing in their way is Atlético Madrid, already assured of third place in the standings. Diego Simeone’s men have achieved the minimum target of Champions League qualification, but there's disappointment for never seriously challenging Barcelona for the title or making a deep run in Europe, where they were knocked out in the Round of 16 by bitter rivals Real Madrid. Now, Los Colchoneros will look to wrap up La Liga with a win before turning their focus to the FIFA Club World Cup, where they are set to face Paris Saint-Germain on June 15.

Girona Recent Form and Key Stats

Girona has delivered inconsistent performances lately: in their last three fixtures, they've alternated between two wins and two losses. In their most recent match, they fell 3-2 away to Real Sociedad, conceding the decisive goal in stoppage time. Once again, Uruguayan striker Christian Stuani stood out, having scored 11 goals so far this season. Previously, Girona had earned 1-0 wins against Mallorca and Real Valladolid, and suffered a 1-0 defeat to Villarreal.

Michel’s men secured a hard-fought safety with 41 points (11 wins, 8 draws, 18 losses), averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.51 goals conceded per match. With the third-worst defense in La Liga (tied with Leganés), Girona has managed just 7 home wins (along with 3 draws and 8 losses), winning only two home matches in 2025. Furthermore, between April and May, they lost three home games and won just once.

Atletico Madrid Recent Form and Key Stats

In their last league game, Atlético Madrid cruised past Real Betis with a 4-1 win, featuring a brace from Julián Álvarez, and goals from Le Normand and Correa. That result helped them bounce back after a 2-0 loss to Osasuna, which was their only slip-up in the last five matches. Before that, they recorded wins over Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano, and a draw against Deportivo Alavés.

Following Diego Simeone’s blueprint, the Madrid side has once again displayed defensive solidity, boasting the second-best defense in La Liga with only 30 goals conceded (an average of 0.81 per match). Their consistent form has earned them third place with 73 points from 21 wins, 10 draws, and 6 losses. However, their away form has been less impressive: since March, they have lost three of their last six away league games, falling to Getafe, Las Palmas, and Osasuna.

Girona vs Atletico Madrid Prediction and Tactical Overview

Atlético Madrid holds a strong historical edge over Girona, with just one defeat in their last eleven meetings—five wins and five draws. Their last five wins against Girona have come in the most recent six encounters, including a 3-0 victory earlier this season thanks to goals from Griezmann, Llorente, and Koke.

With neither team having anything to play for (Girona are safe, and Atlético have secured third) the superior technical quality of Simeone's squad could be the deciding factor. Given Girona’s struggles in attack (just two home goals in their last four matches), it's hard to see them seriously troubling one of the league’s best defenses.

Also worth noting: several players may be eager to boost their individual stats in this final fixture. One such player is Julián Álvarez, who could hit the 30-goal mark with one more strike. With a 32-point gap between the two sides in the standings, Atlético clearly has the edge to end La Liga with a win and head into the Club World Cup with momentum.

As for the Girona vs Atletico Madrid prediction, BetMines’ algorithm heavily favors the visitors to take all three points.

• Girona vs Atletico Madrid prediction of the BetMines algorithm predicts the sign 1 at 24%.
  
  
• Girona vs Atletico Madrid prediction of the BetMines algorithm predicts the sign X at 23%.
  
  
• Girona vs Atletico Madrid prediction of the BetMines algorithm predicts the sign 2 at 53%.

Predicted Lineups Girona vs Atletico Madrid

GIRONA (4-2-3-1): Krapyvtsov; A Martinez, Frances, Krejci, Blind; Herrera, Solis; Tsygankov, Martin, Asprilla; Portu. Coach: Michel

ATLETICO MADRID (4-4-2): Oblak; Llorente, Le Normand, Lenglet, Galan; Simeone, De Paul, Koke, Gallagher; Alvarez, Sorloth. Coach: Simeone