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Girona
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FT
Villarreal
Prediction published on Apr 4, 2026 9:01 PM by Dario in Spain - La Liga | Modified on Apr 4, 2026 9:01 PM
The final match of La Liga’s 30th round will take place at the Municipal de Montilivi, where Girona FC host Villarreal CF in a clash that promises intensity and high stakes. Both sides enter this encounter with different objectives but a shared need for points — Girona aiming to move further away from the relegation zone, while Villarreal continue their pursuit of a Champions League spot. The recent head-to-head record heavily favors the visitors, who have dominated most of their recent meetings, including a resounding 5-0 victory earlier this season.
Girona approach this fixture after a narrow 1-0 defeat against Osasuna, a result that extended their inconsistent run in La Liga. Over their last five matches, they have managed just one win, alongside two draws and two defeats. Despite showing flashes of attacking intent, their average of 1.1 goals scored per game this season highlights a lack of cutting edge in the final third. Defensively, they have conceded 1.5 goals per match, a figure that has often cost them valuable points.
At home, Girona have shown some resilience, winning at half time in six of their last ten league matches. However, their games tend to be tight and low-scoring — Under 3.5 goals have been recorded in 20 of their last 21 fixtures, and Under 1.5 goals at half time in 18 of the last 20. This pattern suggests a cautious approach, particularly in the opening stages of matches. Another notable trend is that at least one team has failed to score before the break in 28 of their last 30 league outings, reinforcing the idea of slow starts and defensive discipline.
Injuries have also played a role in Girona’s uneven campaign. Several key players remain unavailable or doubtful, forcing the team to rely on squad depth and tactical adaptability. Supported by their home crowd, Girona will look to frustrate Villarreal and capitalize on any defensive lapses from the visitors.
Villarreal arrive in Montilivi full of confidence after a convincing 3-1 win over Real Sociedad. Their recent form has been strong, with three victories, one draw, and only one defeat in their last five matches. The team’s attacking output has been impressive — averaging 1.9 goals per game this season — while conceding just 1.2 on average. This balance between offensive power and defensive stability has been key to their position near the top of the table, currently sitting third in La Liga.
Villarreal’s matches tend to be open and entertaining. Over 1.5 goals have been scored in 21 of their last 22 league games, and Over 0.5 goals in the second half in 27 of the last 28. Even away from home, their attacking consistency remains intact, with goals in the second half recorded in 19 of their last 21 away fixtures. However, they have shown some vulnerability early on, losing at half time in six of their last ten away matches. Their corner statistics also suggest a more controlled tempo on the road, with Under 8.5 corners in their last eight away games.
Historically, Villarreal have dominated this fixture, winning three of the last five meetings and losing only once. Their 5-0 triumph in the reverse fixture underlined the gap between the two sides, both in quality and confidence. With their attacking players in form and a strong collective dynamic, Villarreal will look to impose their rhythm early and maintain control throughout the match.
This encounter pits two teams with contrasting styles and ambitions. Girona will likely prioritize defensive organization and quick transitions, hoping to exploit spaces on the counterattack. Their home advantage could help them stay competitive, especially if they manage to keep the game tight in the first half. On the other hand, Villarreal are expected to dominate possession, using their attacking depth to create chances and test Girona’s back line repeatedly.
Given the statistical trends, goals in the second half appear highly probable, as both teams tend to open up after the break. Villarreal’s superior form and attacking efficiency make them favorites, but Girona’s determination at home could make this a closer contest than the reverse fixture. The visitors’ consistency in front of goal, however, remains the decisive factor heading into this clash.
Girona vs Villarreal prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 59% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Girona
Villarreal
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
1
9
2
8
2.5
4
6
3
7
3.5
5
5
5
5
4.5
7
3
9
1