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Prediction published on May 8, 2025 5:05 PM by Dario in Spain - La Liga | Modified on May 9, 2025 3:38 PM
At the Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, La Liga Matchday 35 features a clash between Girona, fighting to stay in Spain’s top flight, and Villarreal, in full pursuit of a Champions League spot. The home side is coming off a narrow 1-0 win over Mallorca, which extended their cushion over the relegation zone to six points. However, with four matches still left in the season, there's no room for error. Girona’s goal for this season finale is to secure safety as soon as possible, allowing them to analyze their disappointing campaign—especially in contrast to last season, when they finished third and qualified directly for the Champions League. To face the final three fixtures against Valladolid, Real Sociedad, and Atletico Madrid, Girona must beat a determined Villarreal. The Yellow Submarine is currently fifth and aims to return to Europe's top competition after a two-year absence. Marcelino’s squad is riding a two-game winning streak and knows that any misstep could cost them their Champions League dream, given they’re only one point ahead of sixth place. Expect Villarreal to go all-in for three points in this high-stakes encounter.
In their last La Liga outing, Girona defeated Mallorca 1-0 thanks to a 10th-minute goal from Stuani, ending a nearly three-month winless streak. It was their second positive result in a row after a 1-1 draw with Leganes. In their last five matches, Girona have managed one win, one draw, and three defeats, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game.
Michel’s side has accumulated 38 points so far, with 24 earned at home. They hold a six-point lead over Las Palmas, who sit in 18th place. Overall, Girona average 1.21 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per match. At home in 2025, they’ve picked up 8 points from 9 games (2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses).
Villarreal comes into this fixture following two home wins: a 1-0 victory over Espanyol and a 4-2 win against Osasuna. These six points have lifted them to 58 points, the last spot granting Champions League qualification, just one ahead of Real Betis, making for an intense season finale.
Marcelino’s men have posted three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Away from home, Villarreal ranks as the third-best team in La Liga, collecting 30 points (9 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses). They've won four and lost two of their last six away games.
In all but one of their home matches in 2025, Girona has scored at least once—failing to do so only in the 0-1 loss to Alaves on April 5. Against Villarreal, they’ve averaged one goal per game in their last five meetings, while the Yellow Submarine has averaged 1.4.
In eight of their last ten matches, Girona has not only scored but also conceded, often falling behind first—seven times in their last nine games.
The reverse fixture in December ended 2-2, with Villarreal leading 2-1 before Krejci equalized in stoppage time. A similar back-and-forth contest is likely in this return leg, as both sides need the win to move closer to their respective season goals.
For these reasons, the Girona vs Villarreal prediction from the BetMines algorithm suggests both teams will score.
GIRONA (4-3-3): Gazzaniga; A. Martinez, D. Lopez, Krejci, Blind; Martin, Arthur, Herrera; Tsygankov, Stuani, Portu. Manager: Michel
VILLARREAL (4-4-2): Luiz Junior; Navarro, Foyth, Costa, S. Cardona; Pepe, Comesana, Parejo, Baena; Perez, Barry. Manager: Marcelino
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Girona
Villarreal
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
4
6
1
9
2.5
7
3
5
5
3.5
9
1
7
3
4.5
9
1
8
2