The Copa del Rey returns with an exciting Round of 32 clash between Granada and Rayo Vallecano. After a short winter break, both sides are eager to resume their campaigns and secure a place in the last 16. The match will be played at Los Cármenes, where Granada will enjoy home advantage thanks to the competition’s format that favors lower-ranked teams. However, Rayo Vallecano arrive with confidence and experience, ready to face the challenge of a knockout fixture where every mistake could be decisive.

Granada’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Granada approach this encounter after a mixed run of results. Their last outing ended in a 3-2 defeat against Almería on January 3, 2026. Over their last five matches, they have recorded one win, two draws, and two losses, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Despite these inconsistencies, their Copa del Rey campaign has been impressive so far, with two wins from two matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals per game and conceding only 0.5.

At home, Granada have shown resilience, with only two of their last ten matches at Los Cármenes ending with under 0.5 total goals. Their attacking duo of Jorge Pascual and Pedro Alemán have been crucial, each contributing four goals this season, while Soukeymane Faye has provided six assists, making him the team’s top creator. These players will be key if Granada are to overcome their recent struggles and advance to the next round.

• Last 5 matches: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats.


• Average goals scored: 1.0 | Average conceded: 1.2.


• Copa del Rey record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.


• Average goals in Copa del Rey: 3.0 scored, 0.5 conceded.


• Under 0.5 goals in 3 of their last 13 matches overall.

Rayo Vallecano’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Rayo Vallecano come into this fixture after a 1-1 draw against Getafe on January 2, 2026. Their recent form has been slightly more consistent than Granada’s, with two wins, two draws, and one defeat in their last five games. They have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, showing a balanced but cautious approach. In the Copa del Rey, Rayo have one win and one draw, scoring an average of 3.5 goals and conceding 1.0 per game — a sign of their attacking potential.

However, the Madrid-based side face several absences for this match, including Zurawski, Balliu, Mumin, and Felipe. Despite these setbacks, Rayo’s offensive structure remains strong, with Isi playing a central role as the creative link behind the striker. Jorge de Frutos also arrives in good form after scoring in his last appearance, and his pace on the right flank could be a decisive factor against Granada’s defense.

• Last 5 matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat.


• Average goals scored: 1.2 | Average conceded: 1.2.


• Copa del Rey record: 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses.


• Average goals in Copa del Rey: 3.5 scored, 1.0 conceded.


• Under 0.5 goals in 3 of their last 11 matches overall.

Granada vs Rayo Vallecano: Head-to-Head and Analysis

The historical record between these two sides favors Rayo Vallecano. In their last five meetings, Granada have failed to win, drawing once and losing four times. The most recent encounter ended 2-1 in favor of Rayo on May 15, 2024. Across those matches, Granada have averaged just 0.6 goals scored while conceding 2.4, highlighting the visitors’ dominance in this fixture.

Both teams enter this tie with similar momentum, but Rayo’s superior record and attacking depth could give them the edge. Granada’s home advantage and strong cup form should not be underestimated, yet their defensive vulnerabilities might prove costly against a side that thrives in open, high-intensity games. Expect a balanced contest with moments of brilliance from both sides, but Rayo’s experience in handling pressure situations could tilt the balance in their favor.

Prediction and Final Verdict

Given the data and recent performances, this Copa del Rey clash promises to be tight and competitive. Granada’s attacking trio will look to exploit their home advantage, while Rayo Vallecano’s dynamic forward line aims to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The statistics suggest a close match, with both teams likely to find the net.

According to the latest probabilities, Granada have a 40% chance of winning, the draw stands at 26%, and Rayo Vallecano’s victory probability is 34%. The Both Teams To Score – Yes option is slightly favored at 53%, while the Under 2.5 goals market holds a narrow 51% likelihood, indicating a potentially low-scoring but balanced affair.

Taking all factors into account, the BetMines prediction for this match leans towards a Rayo Vallecano win (2), supported by their superior head-to-head record and attacking consistency. However, Granada’s resilience at home could make this a hard-fought battle decided by fine margins.

Granada vs Rayo Vallecano prediction by BetMines: Rayo Vallecano win (2) with 34% probability.