Greece host Germany at Stadio Toumbas in Thessaloníki on Sunday, October 4, for matchday four of UEFA Nations League Group A2. Greece lead the group with seven points from two wins and a draw, while third-placed Germany have four points. The hosts protected their unbeaten start with a 2-2 draw against the Netherlands on Thursday, although they let a two-goal lead slip. Germany arrive after a 2-0 win over Serbia on the same day. Greece won the reverse fixture 1-0, but Germany’s competitive away record suggests this meeting could present a different challenge.

Greece’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Greece have taken seven points from their first three Nations League matches, scoring an average of 1.7 goals and conceding 1.0 per game. Their draw with the Netherlands kept them unbeaten in the group and two points ahead of the Dutch side. It also showed both sides of Greece’s recent form: they scored twice but could not hold on to their advantage.

Across their last five matches in all competitions, Greece have recorded two wins, two draws and one defeat, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Their 1-0 victory away to Germany on September 27 demonstrated that they can get a result in this fixture. Home form offers a note of caution, though: Greece have won only one of their last five home games, alongside one draw and three defeats.

One striking timing trend concerns the opening 45 minutes. At least one team has failed to score before half-time in each of Greece’s last 27 matches. That does not determine how this game will unfold, but it is worth weighing against the possibility of a more open contest after the interval. Greece have also had two goalless matches among their last ten Nations League home fixtures.

Germany’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Germany earned their first win of this Nations League campaign by beating Serbia 2-0 on Thursday. It was also their first victory under Jurgen Klopp. After one win, one draw and one defeat in Group A2, they sit three points behind Greece and one behind the Netherlands. Another positive result would help them build on the Serbia performance after an uneven start.

The wider five-match record underlines that inconsistency: one win, two draws and two defeats, with averages of 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. In this Nations League campaign, Germany have likewise averaged 1.0 goal scored per match, while conceding 0.7. Their clean sheet against Serbia followed the 1-0 home defeat to Greece in the reverse meeting.

Germany’s record on competitive trips is stronger than their recent overall results. They have lost just one of their last five competitive away games, winning three and drawing one. There have also been at least two total goals in each of their last 11 Nations League away matches. A goal has been scored after half-time in each of Germany’s last 14 Nations League games, a sequence that also holds across their last ten matches in all competitions. Those figures leave plenty to play for even if the first half is restrained.

Greece vs Germany Match Analysis

The contrast is clear: Greece have made the stronger start to Group A2 and already beaten Germany, but the visitors bring a solid recent competitive away record and a fresh win over Serbia. Greece’s 2-2 draw with the Netherlands showed their ability to score while also exposing how a promising lead can disappear. Germany, meanwhile, will be trying to turn Thursday’s victory into sustained momentum rather than another isolated result.

The head-to-head picture is not one-sided. From Greece’s perspective, the supplied three-match summary stands at one win and two defeats, with averages of 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Their latest meeting went Greece’s way, yet those broader numbers and Germany’s away scoring trend leave room for a response. With both sides having a route into the game, whether Greece can maintain their group-leading form while Germany improve on their reverse-fixture display is the central question of this UEFA Nations League preview.

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