Greece and Serbia meet in the UEFA Nations League on November 16, 2026, with both looking for a response to heavy defeats on the previous matchday. Greece remain second in Group A2 despite losing 7-0 to the Netherlands, while fourth-placed Serbia arrive after a 3-1 home defeat to Germany. The match at Dimotiko Stadio Neapolis Volou brings together a home side trying to recover from its biggest setback of this campaign and visitors still searching for their first group point. Greece have the stronger recent record, but their home form gives them reason to approach this fixture with caution.

Greece's Recent Form and Key Stats

Greece's defeat to the Netherlands on November 13 was a sharp contrast to their overall five-match record of two wins, two draws and one loss. Across those five games, they have averaged 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded. Their UEFA Nations League record stands at two wins, two draws and one defeat, with the same scoring and conceding averages. The seven goals conceded in their latest outing make an immediate defensive response an important part of this match.

The home setting does not guarantee an easy recovery. Greece have not won any of their last four home games and have failed to score in two matches. There have also been three goalless games among their last 11 UEFA Nations League home fixtures, while two of their last 10 matches in all settings have ended without a goal. Those figures temper the expectation that Greece will automatically turn their stronger group record into a comfortable result.

There is still a significant incentive for the hosts: Greece can advance to the quarter-finals if they match or better Germany's result against the Netherlands. Their task on November 16 is to put the 7-0 loss behind them and improve on recent home performances against a side that has struggled throughout the group. In Greece's last 29 matches, at least one team has been goalless at half-time, another indication that an early breakthrough should not be taken for granted.

Serbia's Recent Form and Key Stats

Serbia travel to Greece after losing all five of their UEFA Nations League group matches. Their 3-1 defeat to Germany on November 13 was a fifth consecutive group loss and part of a wider run of seven straight defeats. Over their last five games, Serbia have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. They have won just twice in their last 10 matches, and their results in this group have cost them their place in the top tier after two seasons.

Defensive difficulties have accompanied that run: Serbia have gone 14 matches without a clean sheet and conceded three goals on four occasions during their recent losing sequence. Their away results offer little encouragement either, with six consecutive defeats on the road during head coach Veljko Paunovic's 12 months in charge. Two Serbia players were sent off against Germany, adding to the difficulty of their latest setback without changing the central issue shown by their results: they have yet to take a point in Group A2.

Serbia's matches have tended to feature early scoring. There has been at least one first-half goal in each of their last 13 games, and Serbia have trailed at half-time in eight of their last 11. That pattern contrasts with Greece's frequent first halves in which at least one side has not scored. For Serbia, avoiding another poor start would be a first step towards ending their losing streak.

Greece vs Serbia Match Analysis

The recent results point towards a Greece advantage, though neither team's latest performance offers much comfort. The hosts must recover from conceding seven against the Netherlands, while Serbia come in with five group defeats, no clean sheets in 14 games and a prolonged losing run away from home. Greece have won two of the teams' three recorded meetings, but their four-game home winless run means this fixture cannot be judged on Serbia's form alone.

Goals data offer a less decisive guide. Greece's last five matches have produced averages of 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded, while Serbia's corresponding figures are 0.8 and 2.2. Serbia's defensive record creates an opportunity for Greece, but the hosts' recent goalless outings and home results leave open the question of how effectively they will use it. The clearest difference between the sides is their UEFA Nations League record: Greece have collected two wins and two draws, whereas Serbia have lost every group match. That makes a home victory the most coherent single outcome, provided Greece can respond to Friday's defeat.

Greece vs Serbia prediction from BetMines: Greece win (1) with 56% probability.