With the final matchday upon us, it's decision time in the Copa Sudamericana. The last round will determine who advances directly to the round of 16, who will need to go through the playoffs, and who will see their journey in the competition come to an end. In Group D, Grêmio, currently second with nine points, face a crucial home match against Sportivo Luqueño, who sit bottom of the table with just two points. The Brazilian side still have hopes of securing top spot: after five rounds, they trail group leaders Godoy Cruz by just two points. A win could see them leapfrog the Argentinians and book their ticket directly to the last 16 – but only if Godoy Cruz fail to beat Grau, who are third in the group with three points. In the event of a points tie, goal difference will decide the standings. Grêmio, currently 12th in the Brasileirão and 10 points behind Palmeiras, go into this game as strong favorites. They're unbeaten in their last six home matches at the Arena do Grêmio and will be facing the weakest team in the group on paper: Sportivo Luqueño. The Paraguayan side, coached by Julio César Cáceres, have had a very disappointing season both domestically and in South America. With just two points from five matches, they’re unlikely to pose a serious challenge to the Brazilians—unless they summon some last-minute pride to avoid finishing last, trailing Grau by just a single point.

Grêmio's Recent Form and Key Stats

Grêmio returned to winning ways in their last Campeonato Brasileiro Série A match with a 1-0 victory over Bahia, thanks to a goal from Braithwaite. That result ended a five-game winless streak (four draws, one loss). Across all competitions, their last five games have yielded one win, three draws, and one defeat, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game.

In the Copa Sudamericana, Grêmio remain unbeaten in Group D, sitting second with nine points from two wins and three draws. They’ve scored 7 goals and conceded 4 in their five matches. Their last outing in the tournament was a 1-1 draw against Godoy Cruz, who currently lead the group with 11 points.

At home, Grêmio are enjoying a six-game unbeaten run (four draws, two wins). Their last home loss came on April 13 (0-2 vs Flamengo in the league). In their most recent two home matches, across league and Copa do Brasil, they’ve kept clean sheets.

Sportivo Luqueño's Recent Form and Key Stats

Sportivo Luqueño head into this match in the midst of a deep slump. They’ve won just one of their last ten matches across all competitions (Copa de Primera and Copa Sudamericana). Over their last five games, their record is one win (1-0 vs Libertad on May 12), two draws, and two defeats, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Their poor form is mirrored in their Copa Sudamericana campaign: just two points from five matches, both earned in draws against Grau, with 4 goals scored and 8 conceded.

Their away form is especially concerning: they haven’t won in nine straight away matches in all competitions, with five draws and four losses. They’ve conceded in each of their last five away outings, including four goals in a single match against Nacional Asunción on May 17.

Grêmio vs Sportivo Luqueño Prediction and Tactical Overview

The Grêmio vs Sportivo Luqueño prediction for the final matchday in Group D of the Copa Sudamericana heavily favors the home side.

The main factor working in Grêmio’s favor is motivation. A win could see them top the group, provided Godoy Cruz drop points against Grau. In such a scenario, Tricolor would advance directly to the round of 16, avoiding the playoff stage.

Grêmio’s home form adds to their credentials, as they’ve ended a poor run with a win and are undefeated at home in their last six games.

In contrast, Sportivo Luqueño are enduring a forgettable season, especially away from home, with just one away win since January. Already mathematically eliminated from contention, they’re unlikely to match Grêmio’s intensity.

Another strong indicator comes from the reverse fixture: Grêmio won 2-1 in Paraguay, with goals from Arezo (penalty) and Braithwaite, while Federico Santander briefly leveled the score for the hosts.

• Grêmio vs Sportivo Luqueño prediction of the BetMines algorithm predicts the sign 1 at 70%.
  
  
• Grêmio vs Sportivo Luqueño prediction of the BetMines algorithm predicts the sign X at 17%.
  
  
• Grêmio vs Sportivo Luqueño prediction of the BetMines algorithm predicts the sign 2 at 12%.

Grêmio vs Sportivo Luqueño Predicted Lineups

GRÊMIO (4-3-3): Tiago Volpi; João Pedro, Wagner Leonardo, Walter Kannemann, Cândido; Villasanti, Dodi, Cristaldo; Olivera, Braithwaite, Amuzu. Coach: Mano Menezes

SPORTIVO LUQUEÑO (4-4-2): Mongelos; Ferreira, Brizuela, Villalba, Maldonado; Comas, Benítez, Báez, Torres; Pérez, González. Coach: Julio César Cáceres