The FA Cup returns this weekend with a fascinating third-round tie between Grimsby Town and Weston-super-Mare at Blundell Park. The Mariners, who have enjoyed memorable cup runs in recent years, will look to assert their higher-league status against a Weston side making history with their first-ever appearance at this stage of the competition. With both teams arriving in good form, this encounter promises to deliver plenty of excitement and drama for fans of English cup football.

Grimsby Town’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Grimsby Town enter this FA Cup clash on the back of renewed confidence after securing consecutive victories, including a 0-1 win away to Fleetwood Town on January 1, 2026. That result marked their second win in five matches, during which they have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats. Despite a modest average of 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game in that stretch, their defensive organization has been improving steadily.

In the FA Cup this season, the Mariners have been particularly impressive, boasting a perfect record of 2 wins from 2 matches. They have averaged 3.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded per game in the competition, underlining their attacking potential when facing lower-tier opposition. Their home form also offers encouragement: Over 0.5 goals in the second half have been scored in 20 of their last 22 home fixtures, suggesting that late drama is a common feature at Blundell Park.

Ranked first among the two sides in this FA Cup matchup, Grimsby will aim to build on their strong cup pedigree. Having famously reached the quarter-finals in 2022–23, they know how to handle the pressure of knockout football. The challenge now is to maintain consistency and avoid complacency against a motivated underdog.

Weston-super-Mare’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Weston-super-Mare arrive at this historic fixture in excellent form, unbeaten in their last five matches with 4 wins and 1 draw. Their most recent triumph came in a 0-2 victory over Chelmsford City on December 6, 2025, which secured their place in the third round for the first time in their 139-year history. The Seagulls have been clinical in front of goal, averaging 1.8 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded per match across their last five outings.

In the FA Cup, Weston’s record is equally impressive: 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats, with an average of 1.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game. Their defensive solidity has been a cornerstone of their success, allowing them to compete effectively against higher-ranked opponents. Ranked second in this FA Cup pairing, Weston will look to continue their fairytale run by upsetting a League Two side on its own turf.

However, their away form could be tested against a team with Grimsby’s experience and physicality. Weston’s ability to maintain composure under pressure will be crucial if they are to extend their unbeaten streak and make further history in the competition.

Grimsby Town vs Weston-super-Mare Analysis and Prediction

This third-round tie sets up a classic David vs Goliath scenario. Grimsby Town, the professional League Two outfit, will be expected to dominate possession and create the majority of chances. Their superior experience in high-stakes cup matches could prove decisive, especially given their strong home record and attacking efficiency in this season’s FA Cup.

Weston-super-Mare, on the other hand, will rely on their defensive discipline and counter-attacking sharpness. Their recent form suggests they are capable of frustrating stronger opponents, but facing a side that has averaged over three goals per game in this competition represents a significant step up in difficulty. The Seagulls’ resilience will be tested, particularly in the second half, where Grimsby have shown a tendency to find goals.

Statistically, the hosts hold the upper hand with a 57% probability of victory, compared to 23% for a draw and 20% for an away win. The data also points toward an open contest, with Over 2.5 goals favored at 54% probability and Both Teams To Score – Yes at 54%. These figures suggest that while Grimsby are likely to prevail, Weston could still find the net.

Given the balance of form and the quality gap between the sides, the most logical outcome appears to be a comfortable home win. Grimsby’s attacking depth and cup experience should allow them to overcome Weston’s spirited resistance and progress to the next round.

Grimsby Town vs Weston-super-Mare prediction by BetMines:
Home Win (1) with 57% probability.