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Prediction published on Feb 13, 2026 11:01 AM by Dario in Mexico - Liga MX | Modified on Feb 13, 2026 11:01 AM
The Clásico Nacional returns to the spotlight as Guadalajara and América face off at the Estadio Akron in one of the most anticipated fixtures of the Liga MX Clausura 2026. This sixth-round encounter is far more than just a battle for three points — it’s a clash of pride, history, and supremacy between two of Mexico’s most iconic clubs. Both sides arrive with contrasting dynamics: Guadalajara are flying high at the top of the table, while América are looking to close the gap and reaffirm their defensive strength.
Guadalajara have been unstoppable so far this season, sitting first in the Liga MX standings after five consecutive victories. Their latest triumph, a 1-2 win away at Mazatlán on February 7, confirmed their excellent momentum. The team has averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match in their last five outings, showing both attacking efficiency and defensive balance.
Across the current campaign, Guadalajara’s record stands at 14 wins, 3 draws, and 7 defeats, with an average of 1.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. They have also shown consistency in starting strong, having led at half time in their last three Liga MX matches and in 8 of their last 13 home fixtures. The Estadio Akron has become a fortress, where the team rarely allows opponents to settle into rhythm.
Offensively, the spotlight shines on Armando González, who has netted four of the team’s ten goals this season. His form has been instrumental in maintaining Guadalajara’s perfect start. Another key figure is Efraín Álvarez, a creative midfielder who has contributed with goals and assists, earning multiple appearances in the league’s team of the week. With such attacking depth, Guadalajara have rightfully earned their reputation as the best offensive side of the Clausura 2026.
América approach this derby from eighth place in the table, with a record of two wins, two draws, and one defeat, totaling eight points. Their most recent result was a 1-0 victory over Monterrey on February 8, a match that highlighted their defensive solidity. In their last five games, América have averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, confirming their status as the best defense in the tournament.
Over the course of the season, América’s record reads 13 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match. Their recent away performances have been tight, with under 0.5 goals scored in their last two away fixtures. Despite their modest attacking numbers, América have shown resilience, going four matches unbeaten across all competitions, including victories over Necaxa and Rayados, and a goalless draw against Olimpia in the Champions Cup.
Defensively, Cristina Borja has been a standout performer. The Colombian defender has started all five league matches, averaging 85 minutes per game and earning a spot in the team of the week once. Her leadership at the back has been crucial in maintaining América’s defensive discipline, which could prove decisive in a high-pressure environment like the Clásico Nacional.
The rivalry between Guadalajara and América is one of the fiercest in Mexican football. In their last five meetings, Guadalajara have recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, scoring an average of 0.4 goals and conceding 0.6 per match. The most recent encounter ended in a 1-2 victory for América on September 14, 2025, a result that still lingers in the minds of both sets of fans.
Statistically, Guadalajara’s attacking momentum contrasts sharply with América’s defensive discipline. The home side’s ability to dominate early could be key, as they have often taken control before halftime. However, América’s compact structure and experience in tight matches make them a dangerous opponent capable of frustrating even the most fluid offenses.
Given the balance between Guadalajara’s offensive firepower and América’s defensive organization, this Clásico promises to be a tactical battle. The hosts will look to impose their rhythm through quick transitions and creativity in midfield, while the visitors will rely on their defensive shape and counterattacking efficiency. Both teams have enough quality to find the net, and the emotional intensity of the occasion often leads to unpredictable outcomes.
Considering the current form and statistical trends, this clash is expected to be highly competitive and potentially open in front of goal. Guadalajara’s attacking consistency and América’s defensive resilience suggest that both sides will have their moments. The data also supports a scenario where both teams find the back of the net.
Guadalajara vs América prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 55% probability.
While Guadalajara hold a slight edge with a 42% chance of victory compared to América’s 32%, the draw remains a realistic outcome at 26%. However, the most probable scenario points toward an entertaining match where both teams score, reflecting the balance between the league’s best attack and best defense. Fans can expect another passionate edition of the Clásico Nacional, full of intensity, emotion, and moments that could define the course of the Clausura 2026.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Guadalajara
América
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
2
8
1
9
1.5
2
8
4
6
2.5
3
7
7
3
3.5
3
7
8
2
4.5
6
4
8
2