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Guadalajara
1 - 2
FT
Cruz Azul
Prediction published on May 16, 2026 1:02 AM by Dario in Mexico - Liga MX | Modified on May 16, 2026 1:02 AM
The Liga MX semifinals reach their decisive stage with an exciting second leg between Guadalajara and Cruz Azul. After a thrilling 2-2 draw in the first leg, everything will be decided at the Estadio Akron, where the home side will look to take advantage of their higher regular-season ranking and the support of their fans. Both teams have shown strong attacking potential throughout the campaign, and the first match confirmed that this tie is finely balanced, with neither side willing to give an inch.
Guadalajara enter this decisive clash after a solid season that saw them finish first in the Liga MX standings. Their consistency has been one of their main strengths, with a record of 21 wins, 7 draws, and 11 defeats, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. In their last five outings, they have recorded one win, three draws, and one defeat, showing resilience but also a need to convert more chances into victories.
At home, Guadalajara have been particularly reliable, winning at half time in 10 of their last 14 home matches. Their defense has also been compact, with Under 0.5 goals scored in only two of their last ten home games. This suggests that the team tends to find the net regularly when playing in front of their supporters. The 2-2 draw in the first leg demonstrated their ability to react under pressure, with goals from Sandoval and Ángel Sepúlveda keeping their hopes alive.
Playing at home for the second leg gives Guadalajara a psychological edge. They have already shown in previous knockout rounds that they can overturn difficult situations, as seen in their quarter-final comeback against Tigres. Their attacking line will once again be crucial in breaking down a Cruz Azul side that has been difficult to beat lately.
Cruz Azul arrive in excellent form, unbeaten in their last five matches with three wins and two draws. Their offensive output has been impressive, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game during this run. Over the course of the season, they have maintained a strong record of 22 wins, 15 draws, and only 4 defeats, with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
The team has shown remarkable consistency in attack, having scored at least one goal in each of their last 23 Liga MX matches. Away from home, they have also been reliable, with Over 1.5 goals scored in their last 11 away fixtures. Their ability to stay competitive in every match is reflected in the fact that they haven’t lost at half time in their last 15 league games. The first leg’s 2-2 draw, with goals from Charly Rodríguez and Christian Ebere, highlighted their attacking depth and capacity to respond quickly when under pressure.
Although Guadalajara have the home advantage, Cruz Azul’s recent form and attacking consistency make them a dangerous opponent. Their away record suggests they are capable of finding the net even in challenging environments, and their confidence will be high after matching the league leaders in the first leg.
This semifinal promises to be another open and entertaining contest. Both teams have shown attacking intent throughout the season, and the first leg’s four-goal thriller suggests that another high-scoring encounter could be on the cards. Guadalajara will rely on their home strength and disciplined defense, while Cruz Azul’s fluid attack and ability to score in any venue make them a constant threat.
Historically, Cruz Azul have had the upper hand in recent head-to-head meetings, with Guadalajara failing to win any of their last five encounters (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats). However, the margins have been narrow, and the hosts will be determined to change that trend in front of their fans. Given the offensive quality on both sides, the likelihood of both teams scoring again seems high.
Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul prediction by BetMines:
The most likely outcome for this match is Both Teams To Score – Yes with a probability of 53%.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Guadalajara
Cruz Azul
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
3
7
1
9
1.5
3
7
2
8
2.5
5
5
3
7
3.5
6
4
5
5
4.5
8
2
6
4