After losing the first leg 5-0, Guarani is now facing an almost impossible task: eliminating Universidad de Chile and qualifying for the Round of 16 in the Copa Sudamericana. The mission seems unreachable for the Paraguayan side, who were crushed in Santiago just a week ago by the Chileans led by Gustavo Alvarez. The match, as the final 5-0 scoreline suggests, was completely one-sided. Universidad de Chile went into halftime with a 1-0 lead thanks to a penalty converted by Aranguiz, and then ran riot in the second half—helped by the sending off of Mario Lopez—scoring through Altamirano, Assadi, Hormazabal, and Guerra. To highlight the dominance of the home side, Guarani failed to register even a single shot on target against Castellon. To make matters worse for the Paraguayans, their current form is far from impressive, with two defeats in their last three games across all competitions. Given the five-goal deficit, Guarani are expected to play more for pride than qualification, likely preserving energy for upcoming league matches. On the other hand, Universidad de Chile is in high spirits: the Chileans are third in the league after 16 rounds and have virtually booked their spot in the Round of 16 of the Copa Sudamericana, where they are expected to face Argentine side Independiente. Despite the huge advantage, Alvarez's team is expected to approach the second leg with the same winning mentality, aiming for their sixth consecutive match without a loss.

Guarani's Recent Form and Key Stats

Just two days after the 5-0 defeat to Universidad de Chile, Guarani played in the third round of the Copa Primera Clausura, drawing 0-0 against Sportivo Trinidense. That league draw was their first positive result after back-to-back losses: before the Copa Sudamericana thrashing, they had lost 1-0 to Nacional Asuncion in the domestic league.

Guarani have lost four of their last six matches in all competitions (one win, one draw). At home, performances have been slightly better: two wins, one draw, and one loss in their last four home matches. However, defensive solidity remains an issue. Bernay’s team has kept just one clean sheet in their last nine home games.

Universidad de Chile's Recent Form and Key Stats

Universidad de Chile are in excellent form, coming off five straight positive results—four wins and one draw. The only minor setback in this streak, which began on June 21st, was their recent 2-2 draw away at Nublense, a mid-table team in the Primera Division. It was a frustrating result, as Alvarez’s men conceded a late equalizer after coming from behind.

July has marked a turning point for Universidad de Chile’s away form: after four straight road losses, they’ve earned a 0-2 win against Union Española and a 2-2 draw against Nublense. Across their last 10 away games, the team has shown vulnerability in defense, keeping only one clean sheet.

Guarani vs Universidad de Chile Prediction and Tactical Overview

The first leg highlighted the significant gap between these two sides, and even with the venue switched, there’s a strong feeling that the match could play out similarly to what we saw at the Estadio de la Universidad de Chile.

The Guarani vs Universidad de Chile prediction by BetMines gives the visitors a 46% chance of winning the return leg as well, while the home side's chances of victory sit at just 29%.

Another factor favoring the Chilean side is the head-to-head history: Universidad de Chile has always beaten Guarani, both at home and away. Moreover, the Chilean team is more accustomed to high-stakes knockout fixtures, having famously won the Copa Sudamericana in 2011.

Current form also paints two contrasting pictures: Guarani has secured just one win in the past two months, whereas Universidad de Chile has only lost once over the same span.

This match is likely to see at least three total goals. Guarani, with little left to lose, may opt for an attacking approach fueled by pride, which could leave them exposed to Universidad de Chile’s fast counter-attacks.

• Guarani vs Universidad de Chile Prediction by BetMines: Universidad de Chile to win (sign 2) - 46%
  
  
• Guarani vs Universidad de Chile Prediction by BetMines: Over 2.5 goals - 54%

Probable Lineups Guarani vs Universidad de Chile

GUARANI (3-5-2): M. Rodriguez; Riveros, Roman, Servin; Benitez, Manzur, Maiz, Mendieta, D. Fernandez; Torales, F. Fernandez. Coach: Bernay

UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE (3-5-2): Castellon; Hormazabal, Calderon, Zaldivar; Guerrero, Altamirano, Diaz, Poblete, Sepulveda; Contreras, Assadi. Coach: Alvarez