At the Stadion Ergilio Hato in Willemstad, Haiti is playing for a piece of history: qualification for the 2026 World Cup passes through the final Group C clash against Nicaragua, currently bottom of the group. Migné’s team is level on points with Honduras at the top of the table but disadvantaged by goal difference. To finish first and secure direct access to the World Cup, Haiti must win — preferably by a wide margin — to overtake Honduras on goal difference should they end level on points, while also keeping Costa Rica behind them, as the Ticos could leapfrog both teams if they beat Honduras on the final matchday. Nicaragua, on the other hand, is already out of the race for the top two spots and approaches the match without pressure. Pride is the main motivation for Figueroa’s squad, while for Haiti this game represents a huge opportunity: returning to the World Cup finals fifty years after their first and only appearance.

Haiti's recent form and key statistics of Haiti

In the first five matches of Group C of the World Cup Qualifiers, Haiti collected 8 points thanks to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat. Migné’s team comes from an important 1–0 win over Costa Rica, achieved on November 14 with the decisive goal scored by Pierrot, the AEK striker.

The main strength of the Haitians is undoubtedly their attack, as shown by their average of 1.4 goals scored per match. The defense, however, has been less consistent: in the five group games they kept three clean sheets, but conceded three goals in each of the other two matches, for an overall average of 1.2 goals allowed.

At home, Haiti is still unbeaten in the two matches played so far in Group C: first the 0–0 against Honduras, then the narrow 1–0 win over Costa Rica. A record that highlights strong defensive solidity on home soil, with zero goals conceded and one goal scored.

Nicaragua's recent form and key statistics

Nicaragua arrives at this match as the bottom team in Group C, with 4 points from five matches thanks to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Their only victory came on November 14, when Figueroa’s side beat Honduras 2–0 with goals from Hernandez and Moreno Ciorciari.

So far, the White and Blues have shown clear limitations in attack, scoring just 0.8 goals per match in the first five group games. But the real weak point remains their defense: the 2 goals conceded per match represent a worrying figure that has prevented Nicaragua from staying in contention for the top two spots.

Their away form is especially poor. Nicaragua has not won away from home in five matches across all competitions and, focusing on Group C, they have lost both games played on the road, conceding a total of 6 goals and scoring only 1.

Haiti vs Nicaragua prediction by BetMines

Based on what we have seen in the first five rounds of Group C, and considering the stronger motivation, Haiti is clearly favored against Nicaragua. The Haitians already proved their superiority in the first leg on October 10, won 0–3 by Sébastien Migné’s side.

Pushed by home advantage, the hosts will try to impose their rhythm immediately, aiming not only for a crucial victory in the race for first place but also for a goal haul that could improve their goal difference in case they finish level with Honduras.

Given these factors, BetMines tips the home win (1) — Haiti to win — and Over 2.5 goals, expecting a comfortable success for the hosts. Nicaragua has conceded an average of three goals per away match in the group and, considering their lack of motivation, this trend is likely to continue.

From a statistical standpoint, Over 2.5 has occurred in three of Haiti’s last four matches and in two of the last three played by Nicaragua.

Probable lineups Haiti vs Nicaragua

HAITI (4-2-3-1): Placide; Arcus, Ade, Delcroix, Lacroix; Jacques, Pierre; Deedson, Bellegarde, Providence; Pierrot. Coach: Migné

NICARAGUA (4-2-3-1): Lopez; Quijano, Cano, Nino, Velasquez; Coronel, Arteaga; Barrera, Arauz, Hernandez; Moreno. Coach: Figueroa