Hajduk Split welcome Raków Częstochowa to Stadion Poljud on Thursday, August 20, for the first leg of their 2026-27 UEFA Conference League play-off. Kick-off is scheduled for 19:00 local time, with both clubs seeking an advantage before the return fixture. The hosts enter the contest after a prolific run across domestic and European competition, while the visitors have combined an unbeaten Conference League campaign with less convincing league results. Recent scoring patterns point towards an eventful meeting: Hajduk’s last six matches have all produced at least three goals, while five of Raków’s previous seven games across all competitions have also gone over that threshold.

Hajduk Split Recent Form and Key Statistics

Hajduk Split moved closer to their first appearance in the main phase of a UEFA club competition since 2011 by delivering an emphatic performance against Žalgiris in the third qualifying round. The six-time Croatian league champions scored nine goals across that tie, completing the job with a commanding 4-0 victory in the second leg. That result reflected the attacking momentum they have built during the opening stages of the campaign.

The hosts followed their European success with a 2-1 league victory away to Gorica on August 16. It extended their return to 13 goals across their last four matches, with Hajduk scoring at least twice in every game during that sequence. All four fixtures featured more than 2.5 total goals, and the broader trend is equally notable: each of their previous six matches has ended with no fewer than three goals.

Hajduk’s record from their last five outings stands at three wins, one draw and one defeat. During that period, they averaged 2.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match. Their Europa Conference League numbers are even stronger, with two victories from two games, an average of 4.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Those figures show why their attacking output is central to this Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa preview.

• More than 1.5 total goals have been recorded in Hajduk Split’s last 13 matches.
• At least one second-half goal has been scored in each of their previous 10 games.
• Hajduk have avoided being behind at half-time in 18 of their last 20 matches.
• They have conceded in five of their previous six fixtures.

The home side’s scoring form gives them a strong platform for the first leg, although their recent defensive record suggests the contest may not be entirely one-sided. Their ability to create goals has been consistent, but conceding in five of six games leaves Raków with encouragement that opportunities could arise at the other end.

Raków Częstochowa Recent Form and Key Statistics

Raków Częstochowa secured their play-off place by eliminating Hammarby 1-0 on aggregate. Stratos Svarnas scored the decisive first-half goal in Stockholm, where Raków defeated their 10-man opponents 1-0. That narrow success maintained the visitors’ unbeaten record in the current Europa Conference League campaign.

Their domestic form has been less reliable. Raków lost 2-1 to Cracovia Kraków on August 16, suffering a third consecutive Ekstraklasa defeat. Across their latest five matches in all competitions, they have registered two wins, one draw and two losses, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. The contrast between their European and league results adds uncertainty to their trip to face an in-form Hajduk attack.

In the Europa Conference League, however, Raków have collected three wins and one draw from four matches. They have averaged 2.0 goals scored and only 0.3 conceded in the competition. Those defensive numbers demonstrate their ability to manage European fixtures, although Hajduk’s recent output presents a demanding test. Raków will need to contain a home team that has repeatedly reached the two-goal mark while also trying to create a threat of its own.

• Five of Raków’s last seven matches across all competitions have produced over 2.5 goals.
• Three of their previous four away fixtures have also ended with at least three total goals.
• At least one team failed to score before half-time in 34 of Raków’s last 36 matches.
• A second-half goal has been recorded in 22 of their previous 24 games.

The frequency of second-half scoring is a particularly strong shared feature. Hajduk’s last 10 matches and 22 of Raków’s previous 24 have contained a goal after the interval. Although Raków’s European defensive average is impressive, their weekend defeat and the broader over 2.5 trend indicate that this first leg could become more open as it develops.

Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa Match Analysis

The statistical picture gives Hajduk Split the edge, with win probabilities of 51% for the hosts, 23% for the draw and 26% for Raków Częstochowa. The available decimal odds also place Hajduk at 1.95, compared with 3.50 for a draw and 3.40 for an away victory. Home advantage and a run of 13 goals in four games support that assessment, but Raków’s unbeaten Conference League record prevents the contest from looking straightforward.

Goals provide the clearest theme of the preview. The probability for over 2.5 goals is 56%, matching the 56% figure for both teams to score. Hajduk have produced at least three total goals in six consecutive matches and have conceded in five of them. Raków, meanwhile, have seen five of seven recent games finish above the same line, including three of their last four away from home. The over 2.5 market is offered at 2.00, while under 2.5 is priced at 1.80.

The timing statistics suggest patience may also be important. Raków’s strong pattern of at least one team not scoring in the first half contrasts with the candidate probability of 73% for a first-half goal. Even so, the most consistent overlap between the teams lies in their full-match scoring records, especially after the interval. If the opening stages are controlled, their repeated second-half goal trends still leave considerable scope for the scoreline to expand.

Hajduk’s productive frontline is the central challenge for Raków, but the hosts’ recent tendency to concede means the visitors may have opportunities to contribute. With both clubs coming off 2-1 domestic matches and their wider results frequently crossing the three-goal mark, a high-scoring outcome is the most coherent conclusion supported by the supplied form and statistics.

Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 56% probability.