On Thursday, May 22, the first leg of the Bundesliga promotion/relegation playoff takes place at the Voith Arena, as Heidenheim—third from bottom in the German top flight—hosts Elversberg, who finished third in the 2. Bundesliga. The home side, who miraculously qualified for the Conference League last season after finishing eighth, could only outperform Bochum and Kiel this year, and will be fighting to avoid a return to the 2. Bundesliga after just two seasons. Frank Schmidt’s team enters the match with serious concerns. Most notably, they can't rely on home advantage, having been the worst home team in the entire Bundesliga—even worse than the two teams already relegated—failing to score in 10 home matches. They also possess one of the league's weakest defenses. Despite the difference in divisions, Elversberg is well-equipped to challenge Heidenheim. Their attacking approach helped them finish just one point short of automatic promotion. Much of their hopes rest on star striker Fisnik Asllani, who netted 18 goals this season. In this first leg, Elversberg will aim to get a positive result ahead of the return leg on May 26. A successful campaign would mark their third promotion in four years—an incredible feat for a club that was playing in the fourth tier as recently as 2022.

Heidenheim Recent Form and Key Stats

Heidenheim ended their Bundesliga season with a 4-1 loss away to Werder Bremen, snapping a three-match unbeaten run that included a 1-0 win over Stuttgart, a 3-0 victory against Union Berlin, and a goalless draw with Bochum. Notably, they kept a clean sheet in three of their last four matches.

The team finished 16th in the Bundesliga with 29 points, recording 8 wins, 5 draws, and 21 losses, averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per match. Their home form was the worst in the league, managing just 11 points from 17 games (3 wins, 2 draws, 12 defeats). They haven’t won at home since a 3-1 victory over Holstein Kiel on March 16, followed by three losses and one draw.

Elversberg Recent Form and Key Stats

Elversberg are unbeaten in their last eight 2. Bundesliga games, with five wins and three draws. They closed the season with a 2-1 away win over Schalke, preceded by a 3-1 victory against Nuremberg and a 3-0 triumph over Eintracht Braunschweig. Their attack is in fine form, having scored in each of their last seven matches.

Horst Steffen’s side narrowly missed out on automatic promotion, finishing third with 58 points—just one behind Hamburg. They boast the second-best attack in the division (64 goals in 36 matches) and a solid defense (37 goals conceded). They are also unbeaten in their last eight away games, with four wins and four draws.

Heidenheim vs Elversberg Prediction and Tactical Overview

These two sides have met just twice before, over a decade ago in the third division, with Heidenheim winning 1-0 at home and drawing 1-1 away.

This season, Heidenheim have struggled with defending counter-attacks, aerial duels, and finishing their chances. Their style tends to rely on long balls and crosses rather than structured build-up play, often resulting in low possession figures.

In contrast, Elversberg excel through short passes and individual flair, especially from standout forward Fisnik Asllani. They frequently break down defenses with through balls and creative movement. However, their main weakness lies in defending set-pieces.

It’s likely that Heidenheim will be forced to take the initiative in front of their home fans, in an attempt to carry an advantage into the second leg. However, this approach could leave them vulnerable to Elversberg’s incisive attacking play. A vital away goal for Elversberg would significantly boost their chances heading into the home leg.

Therefore, the Heidenheim vs Elversberg prediction of the Bundesliga Promotion/Relegation Playoffs, worked out by the BetMines algorithm, predicts a match with goals from both sides.

• Heidenheim vs Elversberg prediction from the BetMines algorithm predicts that both teams will score at least one goal at 62%.
  
  
• Heidenheim vs Elversberg prediction from the BetMines Algorithm predicts that at least one of the two teams will not score a goal at 38%.

Heidenheim vs Elversberg Predicted Lineups

HEIDENHEIM (3-4-1-2): Müller; Traoré, Mainka, Gimber, Siersleben; Schöppner, Dorsch, Beck; Wanner; Pieringer, Honsak. Coach: Frank Schmidt

ELVERSBERG (4-2-3-1): Kristof; Baum, Pinckert, Le Joncour, Neubauer; Fellhauer, Sahin; Petkov, Damar, Zimmerschied; Asllani Coach: Horst Steffen