Helmond Sport host NAC Breda on Friday, October 16, in the 11th round of the Eerste Divisie. The visitors arrive fifth with 17 points from ten matches, five points behind second place, while Helmond sit 17th with nine points. Recent results give NAC the stronger form heading into the fixture: they are unbeaten in four matches, whereas Helmond have gone four without a win. The meeting at SolarUnie Stadion also brings a contrast between NAC’s push to keep pace near the top and Helmond’s search for a response after three defeats in their last four outings.

Helmond Sport's Recent Form and Key Stats

Helmond Sport began their latest five-match sequence with a 3-1 victory over Jong PSV, but that remains their only win in that stretch. They subsequently lost 2-1 to FC Den Bosch and 2-0 to MVV Maastricht, drew 2-2 with Heracles Almelo, and fell 3-1 against TOP Oss on October 9. That run amounts to one win, one draw and three defeats, with averages of 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match.

Across their first ten Eerste Divisie fixtures, Helmond have recorded two wins, three draws and five losses. Their season averages stand at 1.6 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game. Goals have featured consistently in their recent league matches: each of their last ten has produced more than 1.5 goals in total. That statistic concerns goals by both teams combined, rather than Helmond’s scoring alone.

The head-to-head figures offer the hosts a different perspective from the current standings. In the supplied five-match summary against NAC Breda, Helmond have two wins, two draws and one defeat, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. The most recent meeting finished 1-0 on January 26, 2024. Those past results do not change Helmond’s recent form, but they show why the league positions are not the only figures worth weighing before this match.

NAC Breda's Recent Form and Key Stats

NAC Breda have moved in the opposite direction over their last five games. After a 3-2 defeat to Jong FC Utrecht, they beat De Graafschap 2-1, drew 2-2 with Vitesse, then defeated FC Eindhoven 4-2 and MVV Maastricht 1-0. The victory over MVV came on October 9 and extended NAC’s unbeaten run to four matches. Their five-game record is three wins, one draw and one loss, alongside averages of 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded.

NAC’s broader league record is five wins, two draws and three defeats from ten matches. They have averaged 2.0 goals scored per game, while also conceding 1.9 on average. Their recent away fixtures have generally featured goals from the two sides combined, with over 1.5 goals in each of their last 11 away matches. The source article notes that NAC have dropped points in recent away games, although it provides no detailed away-results sequence beyond the fixtures listed above.

First halves are another notable part of NAC’s recent record. At least one goal has been scored before half-time in each of their last 12 matches, including their last ten in the Eerste Divisie. NAC have also led at half-time in their last five league games. A first-half goal in those matches is not necessarily a goal scored by NAC, but their run of half-time leads gives the visitors another positive statistic to take into Friday’s contest.

Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda Match Analysis

The clearest divide between these teams lies in their recent results. Helmond followed their win over Jong PSV with three defeats and a draw; NAC followed their loss to Jong FC Utrecht with three victories and a draw. NAC also enter with eight more league points after ten rounds and a higher five-game scoring average. Helmond’s head-to-head record, however, offers a reason not to dismiss the home side solely on the basis of the current table.

Both teams’ season-long concession averages leave room for chances, and the goal sequences reinforce that possibility: over 1.5 total goals have occurred in Helmond’s last ten league matches and NAC’s last 11 away games. The supplied win probabilities put NAC at 58%, Helmond at 20% and the draw at 22%. Taken together, the standings and recent form favour the visitors, while Helmond’s record in the supplied head-to-head summary provides the principal counterpoint.

Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda prediction from BetMines: NAC Breda win (2) with 58% probability.