On Friday, October 10, Iceland and Ukraine face off in Reykjavík in the Group D Matchday 3 of the FIFA World Cup Qualifiers, which will take place next year across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. In a group where France is expected to dominate, both Iceland and Ukraine aim for second place, which would grant access to the playoffs. The home side approaches this game with a slight advantage, having collected three points so far, while the visitors are stuck on one. A win would give Arnar Vidar Gunnlaugsson’s team a serious edge in the race for second place, while a loss would see them overtaken by Ukraine. Given the two-point gap, the Yellow-Blues cannot afford any mistakes if they hope to return to the World Cup twenty years after their first and only appearance. For Serhiy Rebrov’s men—led by the former Ukraine and Dynamo Kyiv star—this is the definition of a do-or-die match: failure to win would leave them five points behind second place with only three games remaining.

Iceland's Recent Form and Key Stats

Iceland are not going through their best period, having managed just one win in their last five official matches across the World Cup Qualifiers and the UEFA Nations League. Their most recent defeat came on September 9, when Gunnlaugsson’s men were beaten 2-1 by France at the Stade de France in Paris.

After the first two rounds of Group D, Iceland have collected three points thanks to a 5-0 opening win against Azerbaijan and a defeat to France. They currently average three goals scored and one conceded per game, having found the net in every match and kept one clean sheet.

However, their home performances have been inconsistent in recent months. Before the comfortable win over lowly Azerbaijan, Iceland suffered two heavy home defeats (4-2 against Turkey and 3-1 against Kosovo), both in the Nations League.

Earlier, they also recorded a 2-2 draw against Wales, confirming that the Nordic side tend to be prolific at home but vulnerable at the back—especially against higher-quality opponents.

Ukraine's Recent Form and Key Stats

Ukraine’s recent results have been mixed: over their last five games, they’ve recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses. In their latest World Cup Qualifier, Rebrov’s side disappointed expectations, drawing 1-1 away to Azerbaijan despite taking the lead through Benfica midfielder Georgiy Sudakov.

So far, Ukraine have picked up just one point—from that draw and a 2-0 opening defeat to France. After two rounds, the Yellow-Blues average 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, highlighting issues at both ends of the pitch.

In away matches, though, Ukraine have shown solid resilience. Considering they’ve been forced to play even their “home” fixtures abroad for more than three years, they’ve lost only one of their last four away games, adding two draws and one win to that record.

Iceland vs Ukraine Prediction by BetMines

According to BetMines’ algorithm, the Iceland vs Ukraine match is expected to be extremely balanced: Iceland’s win probability is 36%, Ukraine’s is 37%, and the draw sits at 27%.

Past meetings also confirm the parity between these two teams: in their last three head-to-heads, each side has one win and one draw, with Iceland averaging 1.3 goals per game and Ukraine 1.

From an attacking standpoint, BetMines expects an entertaining and open match, with the Over 2.5 goals outcome given a 54% probability and the “both teams to score” option at 57%.

These numbers align with recent trends: “both teams to score” has occurred in seven of the last ten matches played by Iceland and Ukraine combined.

All signs point toward an intense, open contest between two sides that know how to attack but often leave spaces behind.

Probable Lineups Iceland vs Ukraine

ICELAND (4-4-2): Olafsson; Palsson, Ingason, Gretarsson, Tomasson; Thorsteinsson, Haraldsson, Johannesson, Anderson; A. Gudjohnsen, D. Gudjohnsen. Coach: A. B. Gunnlaugsson.

UKRAINE (4-3-3): Trubin; Konoplya, Zabarnyi, Matviienko, Zinchenko; Ocheretko, Kaliuzhnyi, Bondarenko; Zubkov, Vanat, Sudakov. Coach: S. Rebrov.