Among the ties that already seem decided after the first leg of the UEFA Europa League first qualifying round, one of the clearest outcomes is Ilves vs Shakhtar Donetsk. As expected, the Ukrainian side dominated the first match with a commanding 6-0 win, virtually securing their passage to the second round. Played in Slovenia—where Shakhtar is forced to host its home games due to non-football-related issues—the Ukrainians showcased their superior international pedigree and knockout-stage experience, having also participated in the latest edition of the Champions League. After closing the first half with a two-goal lead, thanks to goals from Alisson and Kaua Elias, Arda Turan’s squad ran riot in the second half, scoring again through Alisson, Kevin, Pedrinho, and Newerton. The fact that all the goals came from Brazilian players is no coincidence but rather a testament to the offensive talent Shakhtar Donetsk possesses, with the club historically known for nurturing young Brazilian prospects. The emphatic scoreline in Ljubljana allows Shakhtar to approach the return leg with ease, using the match to refine tactical schemes and build chemistry ahead of the new season. For Ilves, it's a completely different story. After limiting the damage in the first half, they were ultimately overwhelmed by their opponents’ clear superiority and managed just one shot on target against Riznyk. With both feet practically out of the competition, Rantanen’s side will play more for pride than for any real qualification hopes—though that might not be enough to avoid another loss. Should things take a turn for the worse early on, it's likely that the Finnish team will hold back, saving their energy for upcoming domestic fixtures, where they are in a tight title race with Inter Turku.

Ilves' Recent Form and Key Stats

Following the heavy 6-0 defeat to Shakhtar Donetsk, Ilves bounced back in the Veikkausliiga with a thrilling 3-2 win over VPS, a mid-table team. Rantanen’s men deserve credit for their persistence, managing to equalize and complete the comeback (from 1-2 to 3-2) in the final five minutes of the match.

After 16 Veikkausliiga matchdays, the Finnish side has earned 32 points from 10 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, placing them second in the league, just one point behind leaders Inter Turku, who also have a game in hand. At home, Ilves has been solid with 6 wins, 1 draw, and only 1 loss, averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game.

Shakhtar Donetsk's Recent Form and Key Stats

Having ended their season back on May 24, Shakhtar Donetsk are in the midst of their summer preparations. Since early July, they’ve played several friendlies against Croatian, Czech, and Slovenian teams, collecting two wins and a draw—valuable outings both for league readiness and Europa League qualification.

In the last Ukrainian Premier League season, Arda Turan’s men were among the best away teams, recording 8 wins, 5 draws, and only 2 losses on the road, with an average of 1.87 goals scored and just 0.74 conceded per match. To illustrate Shakhtar's strength away from home, consider that in 2025 they’ve lost only once on the road: a 3-1 defeat to Borussia Dortmund in the single-group stage of the Champions League on January 29.

Ilves vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction and Tactical Overview

The first leg clearly highlighted the gap between Ilves and Shakhtar Donetsk in terms of international experience and squad depth. According to BetMines' algorithm, a similar outcome is likely in the return leg, predicting a Shakhtar Donetsk win with over three total goals.

Shakhtar Donetsk (away win, sign 2) has a 42% win probability, while Ilves (home win, sign 1) stands at 34%. Given that Shakhtar already has qualification in hand, they’re unlikely to push the tempo, whereas Ilves will need to attack aggressively from the start in a bid to restore some pride. This situation could play into the hands of the Ukrainians, who can exploit space with their pace and technical skill, particularly through players like Alisson and Kevin.

In this scenario, Ilves might find a goal, but they are also very likely to concede multiple times, potentially leading to another loss in this second leg. Supporting the prediction of over 2.5 goals is the fact that six of Ilves' last seven matches have ended with more than three total goals.

• Ilves vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction by BetMines: Shakhtar Donetsk to win (sign 2) – 42%
  
  
• Ilves vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction by BetMines: Over 2.5 goals – 57%

Predicted Lineups Ilves vs Shakhtar Donetsk

ILVES (3-4-3): Virtanen; Maenpaa, Vaisanen, Rale; Wallius, Popovitch, Veteli, Jukkola; Soderback, Riski, Stjopin. Coach: Rantanen.

SHAKHTAR DONETSK (4-1-4-1): Riznyk; Konoplya, Bondar, Matviienko, Henrique; Marlon Gomes; Alisson, Bondarenko, Sudakov, Kevin; Kaua Elias. Coach: Turan.