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Prediction published on May 3, 2025 4:31 PM by Dario in Europe - Champions League | Modified on May 6, 2025 3:14 PM
Six days after the thrilling 3-3 draw at Montjuïc, Inter and Barcelona meet again at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza for the second leg of the UEFA Champions League semi-final. The winner will face either Arsenal or Paris Saint-Germain in the final at the Allianz Arena in Munich on May 31. The first leg was an absolute rollercoaster of emotions, with both teams going head-to-head in one of the most spectacular matches of this year’s Champions League. The Nerazzurri started strong, scoring with Thuram after just 40 seconds and doubling their lead with Dumfries 20 minutes in. The hosts reacted quickly: first Lamine Yamal and then Ferran Torres leveled the match before halftime. In the second half, Inter regained the lead with Dumfries’ second goal, once again from a corner, only to be caught by an unfortunate own goal from Sommer, who deflected a rebound off the crossbar from Raphinha into his own net. The action didn’t stop there: Yamal hit the crossbar twice, and a goal from Mkhitaryan was disallowed for a marginal offside. The entertaining clash highlighted both the strengths and weaknesses of Barcelona (currently leading La Liga and Copa del Rey winners), who boast the best attack in the Champions League but often leave too many gaps at the back, conceding chances every time they lose possession. Inter, who came into the game on a three-match losing streak, showed their true character at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys. They resisted Barcelona’s pressure and were lethal on set pieces and counterattacks, especially through Dumfries on the right wing. Given how the first leg played out, fans can expect another thrilling, open contest. With the aggregate tied, both sides must go for the win to book their ticket to the Champions League Final in Munich.
Inter come into this match after a 1-0 win over Hellas Verona (Asllani penalty), a game in which Simone Inzaghi rested ten starters, with only Bisseck retaining his place. Over their last five matches across all competitions, the Nerazzurri have recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game.
Despite recent struggles, Inter have the best defense in this year's Champions League (alongside Arsenal), conceding just 8 goals. They have scored 22 goals—fewer than any other semi-finalist. At home, their record is solid: 5 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 13 goals scored and 3 conceded in 6 matches. In the knockout rounds, they beat Feyenoord 2-1 in the Round of 16 and drew 2-2 with Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals.
Barcelona defeated Real Valladolid 1-2 in their latest La Liga outing, with goals from Raphinha and Fermín López. The Blaugrana are in excellent form, having won 24 of their last 30 matches. Their only loss came against Borussia Dortmund in the second leg of the quarter-finals, after winning the first leg 4-0.
Hansi Flick’s side has delivered an impressive campaign in the Champions League: 9 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, scoring 40 goals (best attack in the tournament) and conceding 20. Away from home, Barcelona have picked up 4 wins and 2 losses, averaging 2.67 goals scored and 2.16 conceded per game. In the knockout stages, they won 0-1 at Benfica and lost 3-1 in Dortmund.
The prediction for Inter vs Barcelona points toward another high-octane clash with plenty of goal-scoring opportunities and momentum swings—just like the first leg. The draw from six days ago forces both teams to push for a win from the outset, eliminating any chance of a cautious, defensive approach.
Barcelona, who have lost their last four away Champions League semi-finals, are hopeful of having both Balde and Lewandowski available at least for the bench. Compared to the first leg, Araujo should move into central defense, with Martinez likely shifting to left-back—a key change given Martin struggled to contain Dumfries down that flank.
Despite playing in Milan, the match could mirror last week’s clash, with Barcelona imposing their fast-paced, proactive style but risking exposure with their high defensive line. Inter will look to contain Barcelona’s relentless offense—especially Yamal’s bursts down the right—and strike quickly on the break through Thuram and capitalize on set pieces.
For these reasons, the BetMines’ algorithm prediction for Inter Milan vs Barcelona suggests a fun and high-scoring affair, with both teams likely to score and more than three total goals expected.
INTER MILAN (3-5-2): Sommer; Bisseck, Acerbi, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Lautaro, Thuram. Manager: Inzaghi
BARCELONA (4-2-3-1): Szczesny; Garcia, Araujo, Cubarsi, Martinez; De Jong, Pedri; Yamal, Olmo, Raphinha; Torres. Manager: Flick
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Inter
FC Barcelona
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