After beating Moldova and Estonia with ease in the last round, Israel and Italy meet at the Nagyerdei Stadion in Debrecen (Hungary) in a potentially decisive clash for Group I of the 2026 World Cup Qualifiers. Gennaro Gattuso’s new Italy started strong with a convincing win against Estonia. The Azzurri wasted several chances in the first half but once Kean broke the deadlock in the second half, they ran riot thanks to a Retegui brace and goals from Raspadori and Bastoni, sealing a 5-0 victory. Despite this emphatic win, Italy are still third in Group I, three points behind Israel but with one game in hand. More than useful for the standings, it was an important victory to regain enthusiasm and fighting spirit, which seemed to have been lost under Luciano Spalletti’s management. Since Norway does not look willing to give up the top spot, currently six points clear of Italy and having already won the first direct clash 3-0, Italy are now forced to beat Israel to catch up and at least secure second place, which would guarantee them a play-off spot. Israel, meanwhile, come into the match full of confidence after their 4-0 win away in Moldova, but they know that against the Azzurri they will need a near-perfect performance to remain unbeaten and protect their second place behind Haaland’s Norway. The Israeli national team will do everything possible to spoil Gattuso’s plans, but they risk being overwhelmed by Italy’s superior quality and the media pressure surrounding this fixture, which some voices in the public debate even suggested should not have been played due to the ongoing situation in the Middle East.

Israel's recent form and key stats

The Israeli national team are in good form, having secured two consecutive away wins, the latest being a 4-0 triumph in Moldova. The Blue and White boast a prolific attack and a fairly reliable defense: in their last five official matches, they averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

So far, Israel have played four matches in Group I, collecting 9 points with 3 wins and 1 defeat, averaging 2.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Their victories came against Estonia and Moldova, while their only loss was to Norway, who sit three points ahead with the same number of games played.

Since they have been forced to play their “home” matches outside their borders for several years now, Ben Shimon’s men have had inconsistent results in these fixtures. In their most recent “home” game, they lost 4-2 to Norway, but previously they beat Estonia 2-1 and Belgium 1-0.

Italy's recent form and key stats

By defeating Estonia 5-0 at the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo, Italy earned their second consecutive clean-sheet victory after the 2-0 against Moldova on June 9. Their record across the last five official matches is two wins, one draw, and two defeats, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Gattuso’s Italy, who have only played three times so far in Group I, sit third with 6 points from two wins and one defeat, averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1 conceded per game. Their victories came against Estonia and Moldova, while their only loss was against Norway in their opening match, which immediately complicated their path toward qualification.

If their last away trip ended badly with a 3-0 loss in Norway, it’s worth noting that Italy had previously shown strong performances away from home in the Nations League. Between September 2024 and March 2025, they defeated France, Belgium, and Israel on the road, and drew 3-3 in Germany in the UNL quarter-final return leg.

Israel vs Italy prediction and tactical overview

Israel vs Italy promises to be an intense and hard-fought battle, with both teams seeking three crucial points in the qualification race. However, according to the BetMines algorithm, the Azzurri start as clear favorites.

The matchup is not new: the two nations also faced off in the last edition of the UEFA Nations League, both in Group 2 of League A. On that occasion, Italy won both games, 2-1 away and 4-1 at the Buenergy Stadium in Udine. More generally, the Azzurri have won their last four meetings against Israel.

From a tactical standpoint, Gattuso’s side will look to rely heavily on the creativity of wingers Kean and Politano, tasked with creating chances and supplying Retegui. At the back, the Bastoni-Calafiori duo provides solidity as well as threat on set pieces.

Israel, on the other hand, are likely to adopt a more cautious approach compared to their recent matches against Moldova and Estonia, aiming to contain Italy’s pressure and relying on the pace of Manor Solomon and Oscar Gloukh, their most talented players under coach Ben Shimon.

• BetMines prediction Israel vs Italy prediction by BetMines: Israel win (1) – 21%
  
  
• BetMines prediction Israel vs Italy prediction by BetMines: Draw (X) – 24%
  
  
• BetMines prediction Israel vs Italy prediction by BetMines: Italy win (2) – 55%

Israel vs Italy predicted lineups

ISRAEL (5-4-1): Da. Peretz; Dasa, Nachmias, Shlomo, Lemkin, Solomon; Gloukh, E. Peretz, Do. Peretz, Biton; Turgeman. Coach: Ben Shimon.

ITALY (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Calafiori, Dimarco; Barella, Locatelli, Tonali; Kean, Retegui, Politano. Coach: Gennaro Gattuso.