The new Italy under Gennaro Gattuso makes its debut at the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo on Thursday, September 5, facing Estonia in Matchday 5 of Group I in the UEFA Qualifiers for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The Azzurri changed their head coach last June after a 3-0 defeat against Norway, which led to Luciano Spalletti being heavily criticized and eventually sacked by the federation. The former Inter and Napoli manager guided Italy in the following match against Moldova, securing a much-needed win. Now, Gennaro Gattuso has the delicate task of leading Italy back to the top of the group standings, collecting as many victories as possible and hoping for a slip-up from Norway, who currently sit first with a +9 lead, two more games played, and the head-to-head advantage. That’s why nothing but a victory against Estonia will be acceptable, not only to close the gap on Haaland and company, but also to catch Israel, who currently sit second with 6 points. Estonia, coming off a very disappointing Nations League campaign, entered these qualifiers with the goal of avoiding last place. So far, things are going according to plan, as their only three points came in the direct clash against Moldova, bottom of the group with zero points. Jurgen Henn’s men know they are facing a team desperate for three crucial points, but they will fight hard before giving way to the Azzurri. Since Italy cannot afford to miss a third straight World Cup qualification, we can expect a high-intensity match from the motivated home side, who not only need to win but also to convince in order to silence critics and shake off the ghosts of the past.

Italy's Recent Form and Key Statistics

Italy has been going through a tough period in recent months, which pushed the federation to replace coach Luciano Spalletti with Gennaro Gattuso, a 2006 World Cup winner with the Azzurri. Under the Tuscan coach, Italy suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat in their opening match away to Norway but bounced back with a 2-0 win against Moldova.

The victory over Moldova, thanks to goals from Raspadori and Cambiaso, at least ended a four-match winless streak (three defeats and one draw). However, Gattuso will need to work especially on the defense: Italy has conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game in their last five matches — far too many for a team aiming to qualify for the next World Cup.

Estonia's Recent Form and Key Statistics

Estonia is also going through a difficult moment, having lost back-to-back home games against Israel and Norway. So far, they have collected just 3 points in four matches, thanks to their only win in March, a 3-2 success away in Moldova. Their numbers show an average of 1.25 goals scored and 2 conceded per game, making it very hard to compete for second place in the group.

In reality, the team’s poor form has lasted longer. Under young coach Jurgen Henn, Estonia finished third in Group 1 of Nations League C with just 4 points from six matches, avoiding defeat only against Azerbaijan (one win and one draw).

Italy vs Estonia Prediction and Tactical Overview

Italy is the clear favorite to overcome Estonia and keep up the chase on Norway, who will face Moldova on September 9. Beyond their superior quality and experience, the Azzurri can also count on Gennaro Gattuso’s motivation, as he aims to begin his tenure with a convincing win.

More than betting on Italy’s victory (which has an 80% probability), BetMines focuses on the Over 2.5 goals market, predicting a game with more than two goals scored. Italy not only needs to win but also improve their goal difference, which could prove decisive later in the qualifiers.

Recent results also point toward Over 2.5 goals, especially for Italy: eight of their last ten matches ended with at least three goals, while Estonia’s first two away games in these qualifiers also produced the same outcome.

• Italy vs Estonia prediction by BetMines suggests Over 2.5 goals with a 56% probability
  
  
• Italy vs Estonia prediction by BetMines suggests Under 2.5 goals with a 44% probability

Italy vs Estonia predicted lineups

ITALY (3-5-2): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Mancini; Calafiori, Frattesi, Ricci, Barella, Dimarco; Raspadori, Retegui. Coach: Gennaro Gattuso

ESTONIA (4-2-3-1): Hein; Peetson, Paskotsi, Kuusk, Saliste; Palumets, Shein; Kristal, Kait, Sinyavskiy; Sappinen. Coach: Jurgen Henn