Italy host France at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano on November 12 for a UEFA Nations League Group A1 meeting with implications at both ends of the group. France lead with 10 points from four matches, while Italy sit second with seven, one point ahead of third-placed Belgium. Their meeting on October 2 ended 1-1, and both teams arrive after scoring convincing wins in their most recent games. Italy have home advantage, but France have won both of their away fixtures in this competition without conceding.

Italy's Recent Form and Key Stats

Italy beat Türkiye 3-1 on October 5, taking their record across the last five matches to three wins, one draw and one defeat. They have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over that run. In this season's Nations League, their record stands at two wins, one draw and one loss, with averages of 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match. Italy have yet to keep a clean sheet in the competition, so their attacking output may be particularly important against the group leaders.

The hosts have won one and lost one of their two home games in this Nations League campaign. Looking across a longer stretch, Italy's last 16 home matches have all featured over 1.5 total goals, and each of their last 11 at home has produced at least one second-half goal. They have also led at half-time in 11 of their last 15 home matches and seven of their last 11 Nations League games. Those figures show a capacity to start strongly, although Italy are winless in their last four home meetings with France.

Roberto Mancini has selected his youngest squad yet for this month's games, including call-ups for Riccardo Casano, 17, and Simone Lontani, 18. Italy's recent results have put them in second place and clear of direct relegation, but their narrow advantage over Belgium gives this fixture added importance. The 1-1 draw in the reverse meeting showed that they can score against France; the challenge now is to do so while improving a defensive record that has not yet yielded a Nations League clean sheet.

France's Recent Form and Key Stats

France come into the match unbeaten in Group A1, with three wins and a draw from their first four fixtures. Their Nations League averages of 1.8 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game underline how effectively they have combined results at both ends of the pitch. A victory in Milano would secure top spot in the group, giving the visitors a clear objective despite already being safe from relegation.

Their latest match was a 4-1 win over Belgium on October 5. Michael Olise supplied two goals and an assist in that victory and has registered a goal contribution in all four of France's matches in this competition. Across their last five games, France have recorded three wins, one draw and one defeat, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. They have scored at least once in 22 of their last 23 matches, while each of their last 14 games has included a second-half goal.

France's away record presents Italy with a difficult test: the visitors have won both of their Nations League matches on the road this season and kept a clean sheet in each. They have not lost away from home since their defeat to Spain in the semi-finals in June last year. Yet the 1-1 draw with Italy last month offers a counterpoint to that defensive record. France have also not kept a clean sheet against Italy since September 2007, suggesting that this particular matchup has posed a different challenge from their other recent away fixtures.

Italy vs France Match Analysis

The contrast between France's two away clean sheets in this competition and Italy's scoring record at home is central to this preview. France have the stronger group record and have not lost in four Nations League games, while Italy have scored an average of two goals per match in the competition. Neither side kept the other out in October's 1-1 draw, and Italy have not recorded a clean sheet in their four group games so far.

Recent head-to-head results favour France overall: from Italy's perspective, the supplied summary stands at one win, one draw and three defeats, with averages of 1.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. That record, together with France's away form, makes the visitors a formidable opponent. At the same time, Italy's run of 16 home matches with at least two total goals and France's record of scoring in 22 of 23 matches provide reasons to expect chances at both ends. The available figures point to an open contest, even if France's away clean sheets make an Italy goal far from certain.

Italy vs France prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 66% probability.