The Dacia Arena will host the big match of Group I in the 2026 World Cup Qualifiers on Tuesday, October 14, between Italy and Israel, crucial for the race for second place. The Azzurri, coached by Gennaro Gattuso, currently sit in second place, three points behind Norway and three points ahead of Israel, who have already played one more game. A win against Israel would allow Italy to secure second place, essential for playoff qualification, while realistically, challenging Norway for the top spot in the group appears difficult, given Norway’s advantage in head-to-head results and goal difference. The only remaining chance for the reigning world champions would be to win their last three matches against Israel, Moldova, and Norway, hoping for a slip-up by Norway against Estonia—a scenario that seems unlikely given Norway’s current performances. Israel, on the other hand, enters this away match with the obligation to win to remain in contention for second place. In the next round, they will host Moldova: by achieving two consecutive victories and hoping for an Italian stumble in the final 180 minutes, they could accomplish the double feat of qualifying for the playoffs and simultaneously eliminating Italy, which would then face its third consecutive failure to qualify for the World Cup.

Italy's Form and Key Statistics

Italy arrives at the match against Israel with great momentum, coming off four consecutive wins with an average of 3.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. In their last match, played on October 11, the Azzurri won 3-1 away against Estonia thanks to goals from Moise Kean—who was later substituted due to injury and is doubtful for the Israel game—Mateo Retegui, and Francesco Pio Esposito, who scored his first senior international goal.

After four matchdays, Gattuso’s men have collected 12 points in Group I, the result of 4 wins and 1 loss, with an average of 3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match. Compared to the past, Italy appears more effective in front of goal, as shown by the 13 goals scored in the last three games (4.33 per match).

The Azzurri come off two consecutive home victories: 2-0 against Moldova and 5-0 against Estonia, demonstrating strong defensive stability and a high-flying attack. Among the recent home wins, note also the 4-1 victory against Israel in the Nations League on October 14, 2024.

Israel's Form and Key Statistics

It has been a difficult period for the Israeli national team, coming off two consecutive defeats that have complicated their race for second place. On October 11, Shimon’s men suffered a heavy 5-0 loss away to Norway, the Group I leaders with a perfect record.

The White and Blue have accumulated 9 points in six games, the result of 3 wins and 3 losses, with an average of 2.5 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per match. The most worrying aspect is the defense, which has conceded a total of 10 goals in the last two matches against Italy and Norway. On the scoring side, Salomon and his teammates failed to score against Norway after six consecutive matches finding the net.

The heavy defeat in Norway also brought another negative note, marking their first away loss after two consecutive wins on the road against Estonia and Moldova. Previously, last November, Israel had delivered a solid away performance with a 0-0 draw against France in the Nations League.

Italy vs Israel Prediction by BetMines

The last time these two teams met, on September 8, Italy won 5-4 away in a match full of twists and turns. According to BetMines, the Azzurri have all the cards to repeat the feat, benefiting this time from the home advantage, even though, for security reasons, only a limited number of fans will be present at the Dacia Arena.

Overall, the head-to-head record favors the home side, always victorious in the last five direct clashes against Israel, with an average of 3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match. These numbers reflect games often rich in goals and excitement, given that both teams favor offensive play.

For the reasons mentioned above, BetMines gives Italy a 71% chance of winning, while Israel’s victory probability does not exceed 13%. Additionally, it is expected to be a high-scoring match, with over 2.5 goals likely in 65% of cases, as seen in eight of the last matches played by both Italy and Israel.

Probable Lineups Italy vs Israel

ITALY (3-5-2): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Calafiori; Cambiaso, Barella, Locatelli, Tonali, Dimarco; Esposito, Retegui. Coach: Gattuso

ISRAEL (4-2-3-1): Da. Peretz; Dasa, Baltaxa, Nachmias, Revivo; Abu Fani, E. Peretz; Khalaily, Gloukh, Solomon; Baribo. Coach: Shimon