After a heavy 3-0 defeat against Norway, Italy’s road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup has taken an early hit. At the Mapei Stadium in Reggio Emilia, the Azzurri return to action with a clear mission: beat Moldova, who are still stuck at zero points after two rounds. A win is essential not only to get back on track but also to score as many goals as possible, considering goal difference could prove decisive in the final group standings. The loss in Oslo let deep scars. Against a fast and physical Norwegian side, Luciano Spalletti’s Italy crumbled early, conceding to Sørloth, then being punished by Nusa and Haaland before halftime. No meaningful reaction followed — Berge's shot hitting the post prevented a fourth goal. The many absences in the squad forced Spalletti to reshuffle the defense entirely: Coppola, a 2003-born defender from Verona, made his starting debut with the daunting task of marking Haaland. To avoid once again falling into the playoff trap — which caused Italy to miss the last two World Cups — the path is now clear: win all remaining matches, including a decisive rematch against Norway, preferably by a wide margin. Otherwise, an unlikely collapse from the Norwegians, currently 9 points ahead with two extra games played, would be required. On the other side, Moldova had a terrible start to their Group I campaign: thrashed 5-0 by Norway in their opener and then beaten at home by Estonia (3-2). This will be Moldova’s first away game in the group, and they’ll be aiming at damage control against a wounded but determined Italy. Despite the poor showing in Oslo, the technical gap between the two teams remains massive — and history also heavily favors the Italians. All signs point toward a one-sided game, especially now that Italy can no longer afford mistakes.

Italy Recent Form and Key Stats

This is a very tough moment for Spalletti’s Italy, who have now lost three of their last four matches. The latest defeat, the aforementioned 3-0 in Oslo, exposed all of Italy’s current weaknesses. It was also the second game in a row in which the Azzurri conceded three goals, following the thrilling 3-3 draw against Germany in the Nations League quarterfinals last March.

The head coach will look to use home advantage to reverse the trend, although recent home performances aren’t promising. Italy have lost their last two matches on home soil: 3-1 vs France and 2-1 vs Germany. Before that, there was a convincing 4-1 win over Israel, but that result is not enough to overshadow the concerning trend.

In their last five home games, Italy have conceded at least once in all of them — even against lower-tier teams like Israel and North Macedonia. Defensive solidity is clearly a major concern for Spalletti, and one that needs addressing quickly to keep their World Cup 2026 hopes alive.

Moldova Recent Form and Key Stats

After being idle on Matchday 2, Moldova used the international break to play a friendly against Poland, which ended in a 2-0 defeat. It marked their third consecutive loss, following the back-to-back World Cup qualifier defeats: the 5-0 thrashing by Norway and the much closer 3-2 loss to Estonia, both at home.

Their recent official match record is inconsistent: two wins and three defeats in the last five, averaging one goal scored and 1.8 conceded per match — a reflection of a fragile defense, frequently exposed even against weaker sides.

Away from home, Moldova remain unpredictable. In their last five road matches, they’ve recorded two wins — both 1-0 against Andorra and the Faroe Islands, a credible 1-1 draw in Poland, and two heavy defeats: 3-0 vs the Czech Republic and 1-0 vs Malta.

Italy vs Moldova Prediction and Tactical Overview

Italy enter this match knowing they can’t afford another slip-up: to keep chasing Norway and maintain realistic hopes for direct World Cup qualification, they must win. The Azzurri will be determined to claim all three points, backed by home support and a favorable history against Moldova.

On the other side, Moldova’s poor start to the group has already severely limited their chances. Despite Italy’s recent struggles, Clescenco’s squad does not pose a major threat in terms of technical quality.

As for the likely lineup, Spalletti still has to deal with multiple injuries and absences, especially in the backline. A three-man defense with Di Lorenzo, Coppola, and Bastoni is likely. On the wings, Dimarco is expected to replace Udogie on the left. Up front, with Kean unavailable, Retegui should lead the line again, supported by Orsolini and Tonali.

Considering Italy’s hunger for redemption and the technical mismatch, the Italy vs Moldova prediction for this Matchday 4 clash in the World Cup Qualifiers leans heavily toward a clear win for Italy, in a game expected to go Over 2.5 total goals.

• Italy vs Moldova prediction from the BetMines algorithm predicts a match with Over 2.5 goals at 58%.
  
  
• Italy vs Moldova prediction from the BetMines Algorithm predicts a match with Under 2.5 goals at 42%

Predicted Lineups: Italy vs Moldova

ITALY (3-5-2): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Ranieri, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Frattesi, Ricci, Tonali, Udogie; Raspadori, Retegui. Coach: Luciano Spalletti

MOLDOVA (5-4-1): Avram; Platica, Posmac, Baboglo, Mudrac, Reabciuk; Caicamov, Motpan, Rata, Ionita; Nicolaescu. Coach: Serghei Clescenco