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Prediction published on Jan 10, 2026 8:01 PM by Dario in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie | Modified on Jan 10, 2026 8:01 PM
The upcoming Keuken Kampioen Divisie fixture between Jong AZ and Jong Ajax promises an intriguing clash between two reserve sides eager to prove the strength of their academies. Scheduled for Monday, January 12, this match offers both teams a chance to start the second half of the season on a positive note after a difficult first part of the campaign. With the weather having disrupted recent fixtures, both sides will be keen to make up ground in the standings and build momentum.
Jong AZ currently sit 17th in the Eerste Divisie with 20 points, reflecting a season of inconsistency and defensive struggles. Their recent form before the winter break was far from ideal, with only one win in their last five matches — a 3-2 victory away at Roda JC — followed by four defeats. The most recent setback came in a 3-2 loss to FC Eindhoven on December 19, a result that highlighted their ongoing defensive issues.
Across the season, Jong AZ have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws, and 13 defeats, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per match. Their games tend to be open and entertaining, with goals frequently arriving early: Over 0.5 goals at half time have been scored in 21 of their last 23 league fixtures. However, their vulnerability before the break is evident, having lost at half time in their last three home matches. Another notable trend is that both teams have scored in the second half of each of their last four Eerste Divisie games, underlining their attacking intent but also their defensive fragility.
Jong Ajax find themselves bottom of the table in 20th place with just 12 points, enduring a similarly tough campaign. Their last outing before the break ended in a 0-2 defeat to RKC Waalwijk on December 22. Like their opponents, they have struggled for consistency, managing only one win in their last five matches — a 2-0 home victory over Vitesse — alongside four defeats.
Over the course of the season, Jong Ajax have registered 2 wins, 6 draws, and 13 losses, scoring an average of 1.3 goals per game while conceding 2.0. Their away form has been particularly concerning: they haven’t won in their last 15 away matches in the Eerste Divisie and have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 19 away fixtures. Matches involving Jong Ajax tend to open up after the break, with over 0.5 goals in the second half recorded in 36 of their last 40 league games. Additionally, they have lost at half time in their last six away matches, suggesting slow starts continue to cost them valuable points.
Historically, Jong AZ have had the upper hand in this fixture, winning four of the last five meetings against Jong Ajax. Their most recent encounter ended in a 4-1 victory for Jong AZ on August 18, 2025, a result that showcased their attacking potential when given space to play. Across those five meetings, Jong AZ have averaged 2.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, suggesting that goals are rarely in short supply when these sides meet.
Both teams enter this match in poor form, but their attacking tendencies and defensive weaknesses could combine to produce another high-scoring affair. Jong AZ’s home advantage and slightly better record might give them a marginal edge, yet Jong Ajax’s hunger to climb off the bottom of the table could make this a tightly contested battle. Given their shared defensive issues, the match is likely to feature goals at both ends, particularly in the second half where both sides tend to open up.
With both teams struggling for consistency but showing attacking promise, this fixture could once again deliver plenty of goalmouth action. The statistical trends point towards an open game, with Over 2.5 goals occurring in 68% of their recent matches and Both Teams To Score hitting in 66% of cases. While Jong AZ have a stronger head-to-head record, Jong Ajax’s motivation to end their poor run could balance the contest.
According to the latest probabilities, the most likely outcomes are distributed as follows: Jong AZ win – 50%, Draw – 21%, and Jong Ajax win – 28%. Considering the balance of play and recent performances, a draw appears a realistic outcome, though goals are expected on both sides.
Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax prediction by BetMines:
Over 2.5 goals with a 68% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Jong AZ
Jong Ajax
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
0
10
3
7
2.5
4
6
4
6
3.5
6
4
6
4
4.5
7
3
6
4