Latvia host Montenegro at Stadions Skonto in Riga on October 2, with kick-off scheduled for 16:00 local time. This UEFA Nations League Group 2 meeting brings together teams with contrasting starts: Latvia are fourth after taking one point from two games, while Montenegro lead the group with two wins. The hosts are still looking for their first goal of the campaign; the visitors have scored five times in their opening two fixtures. Their recent form makes this an important test for Latvia and an opportunity for Montenegro to maintain their perfect start.

Latvia's Recent Form and Key Stats

Latvia began their Nations League campaign with a 2-0 defeat away to Armenia, then drew 0-0 at home to Cyprus on September 28. The point against Cyprus ended their wait for a result in the group, but it did not resolve their difficulty in front of goal. Latvia have failed to score in three consecutive matches and have gone four games without a win.

Across their last five matches, Latvia have recorded one win, two draws and two defeats, averaging 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Their Nations League record stands at one draw and one loss, with no goals scored and an average of one conceded. Those figures illustrate the challenge facing the home side: they have kept their opponents from scoring in their most recent outing, but still need a goal of their own to turn a draw into a victory.

Home advantage has not consistently delivered Nations League wins for Latvia, who have won just one of their last four home games in the competition. Their home fixtures have, however, tended to stay within a limited goal range: each of their last 11 Nations League matches at home has featured under 3.5 total goals. Latvia have also failed to lead at half-time in 19 of their last 20 matches. Against a visitor that has scored in both group games, making a stronger start could be particularly valuable.

Montenegro's Recent Form and Key Stats

Montenegro arrive with six points from six available in Group 2. They opened with a 2-1 home victory over Cyprus before winning 3-2 away to Armenia on September 28. Both results required them to score more than once, and their campaign averages now stand at 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match. The attack has supplied the difference so far, although neither victory came with a clean sheet.

The broader results also favour Montenegro. Their last five matches have produced three wins, one draw and one defeat, with averages of 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. They are unbeaten in their last four games, while their most recent four away matches have brought three wins and one draw. That away sequence gives them a relevant measure of confidence after their victory in Armenia.

Other trends point to Montenegro's games remaining competitive beyond the opening period. At least one second-half goal has been scored in 21 of their last 23 matches, and they have avoided a draw in 21 of their last 22. Those numbers do not guarantee another decisive result, but they help explain why Montenegro's recent record looks different from Latvia's run of goalless matches.

Latvia vs Montenegro Match Analysis

The central question in this Latvia vs Montenegro preview is whether the hosts can contain Montenegro while finding a way to score themselves. Latvia's 0-0 draw with Cyprus showed they can keep a group opponent out, and their long sequence of home Nations League games under 3.5 goals suggests a match with limited scoring is possible. Yet they have not scored in either of their first two group fixtures, while Montenegro have found the net five times over the same span.

The head-to-head record offers some encouragement for the visitors without pointing to an easy game. From Latvia's perspective, the four meetings in the supplied record have ended in two draws and two Montenegro wins. The latest finished 0-0 on September 7, 2021. Montenegro are unbeaten in the last two meetings, though that most recent scoreline is a reminder that Latvia have previously held them without a goal.

Recent results give Montenegro the stronger case going into this fixture: they lead the group, have won both matches and bring an unbeaten four-game away run. Latvia can take confidence from their clean sheet against Cyprus, but their scoring record leaves little margin if Montenegro continue their productive start. The supplied win probabilities put Montenegro at 48%, Latvia at 27% and the draw at 25%, matching the visitors' advantage in form while leaving room for a close contest.

Latvia vs Montenegro prediction from BetMines: Montenegro win (2) with 48% probability.