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Prediction published on May 11, 2026 6:01 PM by Dario in Italy - Coppa Italia | Modified on May 11, 2026 6:01 PM
The 2025/26 Coppa Italia reaches its grand finale as Lazio and Inter face off at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. Scheduled for Monday, May 13, this clash comes just four days after their league encounter, which ended with a dominant 3-0 victory for the Nerazzurri on the same pitch. With the trophy and a place in European competition at stake, both sides are expected to deliver an intense and emotional battle under the lights of the capital.
Lazio arrive at this decisive match seeking their eighth national cup, having endured a challenging but impressive journey to reach the final. They eliminated Milan in the round of 16, then knocked out the defending champions Bologna and finally Atalanta, advancing on penalties in both the quarterfinals and semifinals. Despite their struggles in Serie A, this cup run has been a source of pride and redemption for the Biancocelesti.
According to recent data, Lazio’s last five matches show a mixed record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. In the Coppa Italia, they remain unbeaten in regulation time with 1 win and 3 draws, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. However, their recent home form has been concerning — they have lost at half time in each of their last three home matches, and in 32 of their last 34 games, at least one team failed to score before the break.
Motivation will be high for Lazio, as this final represents their last opportunity to secure European football for next season. The return of captain Mattia Zaccagni could provide a morale boost, while Gustav Isaksen and Pedro remain their most productive attackers this season. Still, the team’s inconsistency and defensive lapses have been evident, particularly in their recent 0-3 loss to Inter.
Inter enter the final as newly crowned champions of Italy, having already secured the Serie A title with three rounds to spare. Their dominance was reaffirmed in the recent 3-0 league win over Lazio, a result that underlined their superior form and depth. Under Cristian Chivu’s guidance, the Nerazzurri have been relentless in their pursuit of a domestic double, and this final offers the chance to lift their tenth Coppa Italia trophy.
Statistically, Inter’s form is outstanding. They have recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.6 goals per game while conceding just 0.8. In this season’s Coppa Italia, they boast 3 wins and 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The team has not lost in 19 of their last 20 matches in the competition and has scored in 28 of their last 30 overall. Even away from home, they have shown resilience, drawing 8 of their last 9 Coppa Italia fixtures.
Inter’s attack remains their greatest weapon, with consistent contributions from their front line. The absence of Hakan Calhanoglu is the only notable setback, but the rest of the squad appears fully fit and ready. Their recent defensive solidity — three clean sheets in their last four victories — further strengthens their credentials as heavy favorites to win the title.
This final brings together two teams with contrasting trajectories. Lazio’s resilience in knockout matches contrasts with Inter’s ruthless consistency and attacking power. The Biancocelesti will likely rely on compact defending and quick transitions, hoping to exploit any rare gaps in Inter’s back line. However, given their recent struggles at home and their poor head-to-head record — 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 defeats in the last five meetings, with an average of 0.4 goals scored and 3.0 conceded — the challenge ahead is immense.
Inter, on the other hand, have shown the ability to control matches from start to finish. They have led at half time in each of their last three games and rarely allow opponents to find rhythm. Their balance between attack and defense, combined with their psychological edge from the recent 3-0 victory, makes them the clear favorites. If they maintain their current form, the Nerazzurri could celebrate a historic double at the Olimpico.
All indicators point toward another strong performance from Inter. Their superior form, attacking efficiency, and defensive reliability make them the logical favorites to lift the trophy. Lazio’s determination and home advantage may keep the contest competitive, but the Nerazzurri’s momentum and quality should ultimately prevail.
Lazio vs Inter prediction from BetMines: Inter win (2) with 55% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Lazio
Inter
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
1
9
0
10
2.5
7
3
4
6
3.5
9
1
6
4
4.5
9
1
7
3