On Saturday, May 10th, at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, one of the most anticipated fixtures of Matchday 36 in Serie A takes place: Lazio vs Juventus, a direct clash between two teams tied on points, currently 6th and 4th respectively, with Juventus ahead due to a better head-to-head record. Given their position in the table, this is a crucial showdown in the race for Champions League qualification. Unlike last season, only the top four will qualify, and Roma — also on equal points — are in the mix. Marco Baroni's side, after being knocked out of the Europa League, has bounced back in the league with 7 points from their last 3 matches — wins against Empoli and Genoa, and a home draw with Parma. However, playing at home has become something of a nightmare for the Biancocelesti, as they haven't won at the Olimpico in Serie A for three months — a worrying sign ahead of this decisive clash. Recent performances show signs of fatigue, with their narrow 1-0 win at relegation-threatened Empoli — who played with 10 men for much of the match — a clear example. Still, Lazio are giving their all in hopes of finishing in the top four, as they did in the 2022/23 season. Juventus, aiming for the same goal, have a slight edge heading into the match — both in terms of position and head-to-head advantage, having won the reverse fixture. Igor Tudor, a former Lazio player, faces his second consecutive six-pointer after last weekend’s 1-1 draw with Bologna, and will be eager to take all three points this time around. With upcoming fixtures against Udinese and Venezia, Juventus want to be in control of their own destiny. However, they haven't won away from home since February 23rd.

Lazio Recent Form & Key Stats

Lazio secured a crucial 0-1 away win over Empoli in their last Serie A outing, thanks to Boulaye Dia's 9th league goal of the season, extending their unbeaten league run to six matches. Over their last five games, Lazio have picked up 3 wins (against Bodo/Glimt, Genoa, Empoli) and 2 draws (vs Roma and Parma), averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 goals conceded per match.

That win temporarily lifted them to 6th place with 63 points — level with Roma and Juventus — but behind due to goal difference and head-to-head results. At home, their last league win came in a 5-1 thrashing of Monza on February 9th. Since then, they've drawn six consecutive matches at the Olimpico, with home averages of 1.88 goals scored and 1.41 conceded.

Juventus Recent Form & Key Stats

Last Sunday, Juventus earned a decent 1-1 draw at Bologna, preserving 4th place. They took the lead through Thuram early on, only to concede via a deflected shot from Freuler off Veiga. The Bianconeri have lost just once in their last six league matches, with 3 wins and 2 draws.

Away from the Juventus Stadium, they’ve picked up 26 of their 63 total points, with an average of 1.35 goals scored and 1 conceded per match. However, their last away win came on February 23rd at Cagliari (0-1). Since then, they’ve lost to Fiorentina and Parma, and drawn against Roma and Bologna. The last time they scored more than once away was on February 7th in a 1-2 win at Como.

Lazio vs Juventus Prediction & Tactical Analysis

Lazio have a positive recent home record against Juventus: in their last five meetings at the Olimpico, the Biancocelesti have won 3, drawn 1, and lost 1 (the loss dating back to the 2021/22 season).

Baroni’s side is unbeaten in 8 home games across all competitions, while Juventus haven’t won away in over two months. For this reason, the prediction of Lazio vs Juventus of BetMines algorithm backs Lazio as slight favorites for the win (prediction: Home win – 1).

• The prediction of Lazio vs Juventus of BetMines algorithm predicts the sign 1 at 47%.
  
  
• The prediction of Lazio vs Juventus of BetMines algorithm predicts the sign X at 25%.
  
  
• The prediction of Lazio vs Juventus of BetMines algorithm predicts the sign 2 at 28%.

In their last away match, Lazio only managed a 1-0 win despite having a man advantage for much of the game — a sign of ongoing attacking issues. While Dia and Castellanos have recently found the net, goals are still lacking from wingers Zaccagni and Isaksen, and from the midfield. Injuries to Lazzari and Nuno Tavares (both doubtful for even a bench spot) limit Lazio’s width and creativity on the flanks.

Juventus, meanwhile, will again be without Yildiz (suspended), and hope to have Vlahovic and Koopmeiners fit for at least the bench. Yildiz’s absence was felt in the second half against Monza and at Bologna, with Juventus scoring only through a solo run by Thuram, aided by a goalkeeping error.

For these reasons, the prediction of Lazio vs Juventus of BetMines algorithm sees this match producing Under 3.5 goals.

• The prediction of Lazio vs Juventus of BetMines algorithm predicts a match with Over 3.5 goals at 29%.
  
  
• The prediction of Lazio vs Juventus of BetMines algorithm predicts a match with Under 3.5 goals at 71%.

Lazio vs Juventus Predicted Lineups

LAZIO (4-2-3-1): Mandas; Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Pellegrini; Rovella, Guendouzi; Isaksen, Dia, Zaccagni; Castellanos. Manager: Baroni

JUVENTUS (3-4-2-1): Di Gregorio; Savona, Veiga, Kalulu; Costa, Locatelli, Thuram, Weah; Nico Gonzalez, McKennie; Kolo Muani. Manager: Tudor