On Sunday, September 21, at the Stadio Olimpico, the 163rd Rome Derby between Lazio and Roma will take place, a clash that excites not only the city but the entire Serie A season. The Biancocelesti and the Giallorossi come into this 4th matchday following defeats against Torino and Sassuolo, respectively, both eager to react and get back into the race for the top spots in the standings and, naturally, to assert local supremacy. Maurizio Sarri's team seems to feel a greater urgency for points: with only three points collected so far, another setback would complicate the path to sixth place, considered the minimum season objective. On the other side, Gian Piero Gasperini’s Roma, in his first Roman derby, arrives with double the points of their Lazio “cousins” but with the same need to secure three crucial points to approach the Champions League zone. Although the league is still in its early stages, the Olimpico derby remains a must-watch: as tradition dictates, we expect ninety (or more) minutes of sporting battle that will reveal more about the real ambitions of two teams still searching for their identity after three matchdays.

Lazio's Recent Form and Key Statistics

After the emphatic 4-0 win over Hellas Verona in Serie A Matchday 2, Lazio failed to meet expectations after the international break, losing 1-0 to Sassuolo at the MAPEI Stadium. For Maurizio Sarri's side, it was the second defeat in three matches, following the 0-2 loss at the season opener against Como.

If it weren’t for the four goals scored against Verona, the Biancocelesti’s offensive record would be entirely negative, as the attack remained goalless in two out of three games. This is surprising, considering the Tuscan coach is known for his proactive and attacking style. The defense, however, is also still far from being impenetrable, conceding an average of exactly one goal per match.

While home advantage matters less in a derby—especially when sharing the same stadium—it should be noted that Lazio boasts a solid home trend. The Biancocelesti are unbeaten in their last ten matches at the Stadio Olimpico across all competitions, with seven draws and three victories.

Roma's Recent Form and Key Statistics

Roma enters this match with morale low after suffering their first defeat of the season, losing 1-0 at home to Torino in the last league round. This setback followed two narrow 1-0 wins in the first two Serie A matchdays against Bologna and Pisa.

In the early stages of the 2025/26 season, Gian Piero Gasperini’s side has struggled offensively, scoring only two goals in three matches. The Giallorossi are likely affected by the lack of a reference striker: Ferguson is still adapting to Italian football, while Dovbyk, who scored 12 Serie A goals last season, is currently not in the coach’s plans.

The defense, on the other hand, has remained solid, continuing the performance level from the second half of last season, with Svilar already keeping two clean sheets and conceding just one goal. Regarding away performances, Roma has lost only once in their last 12 Serie A away matches, with eight wins and three draws completing the record.

Lazio vs Roma Prediction and Tactical Overview

The Rome Derby is undoubtedly the most anticipated match every year for both Roma and Lazio fans, as it carries both local pride and crucial points that could either catch up with or widen the gap against rivals.

In recent years, Lazio and Roma have delivered very tight and intense derbies, often with goals taking a back seat. The last seven derbies, for example, ended with fewer than three goals in total, including four 1-0 victories (three for Lazio and one for Roma) and one goalless draw.

Another factor leaning the BetMines prediction toward Under 2.5 goals is the absence of key players in the offensive lines. Among the hosts, Isaksen is not fully fit, while Castellanos will play despite fitness issues after the Sassuolo match. Rovella, a key midfield orchestrator, may also miss the game.

For the visitors, Paulo Dybala, forced off against Torino, and Leon Bailey will be absent. El Shaarawy could start in place of the Argentine, completing the attacking trio with Ferguson and Soulé. Brazilian Wesley, who scored the decisive goal against Bologna in Matchday 1, is also a major doubt.

• Lazio vs Roma prediction by BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with a 55% probability
  
  
• Lazio vs Roma prediction by BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with a 45% probability

Predicted lineups Lazio vs Roma

LAZIO (4-3-3): Provedel; Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Tavares; Guendouzi, Cataldi, Belahyane; Cancellieri, Castellanos, Zaccagni. Coach: Sarri

ROMA (3-4-2-1): Svilar; Celik, Mancini, Ndicka; Wesley, Koné, Cristante, Angelino; Soulé, El Shaarawy; Ferguson. Coach: Gasperini