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Prediction published on Mar 7, 2026 8:01 PM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on Mar 7, 2026 8:01 PM
The 28th round of Serie A features an intriguing clash between Lazio and Sassuolo at the Stadio Olimpico. The home side are enduring a difficult campaign, struggling to find consistency despite a managerial change earlier in the season. With no wins in their last four matches, Lazio are desperate to rediscover form and keep their hopes of a strong finish alive. Sassuolo, on the other hand, arrive in Rome full of confidence after a series of impressive results that have propelled them into the top half of the table and closer to European contention.
Lazio currently sit 11th in Serie A with 34 points, having drawn 2-2 against Atalanta in their most recent outing on March 4, 2026. That result followed a 2-0 defeat to Torino, extending their winless run to four matches in all competitions. The Biancocelesti’s season record stands at 8 wins, 10 draws, and 9 losses, with an average of 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Their attacking struggles have been evident, as they have failed to score in their last three league matches and could go four consecutive Serie A games without a goal for the first time since 2001.
At home, Lazio have been inconsistent, winning only one of their last seven league fixtures at the Olimpico. Defensive lapses have been costly, with at least two goals conceded in each of their last five home matches. The team’s lack of efficiency from set pieces is also notable — they remain the only side in Europe’s top five leagues yet to score from a corner this season. Despite these issues, Lazio’s historical record against Sassuolo offers some encouragement: they have remained unbeaten in nine of their eleven home meetings with the Neroverdi in Serie A, winning seven and drawing two.
Sassuolo are enjoying one of their best spells of the season. Sitting 9th in the table with 38 points, they have won five of their last six league matches, including a 2-1 victory over Atalanta on March 1. Under their current coach, the Neroverdi have found a balance between attacking flair and defensive resilience, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over their last five fixtures. Their overall Serie A record stands at 11 wins, 5 draws, and 11 defeats, with averages of 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match.
Sassuolo’s recent away form has been particularly impressive. After back-to-back wins on the road against Pisa and Udinese, they could achieve three consecutive away victories in Serie A for the first time since mid-2021. Their attacking trio has been decisive, and the team’s confidence is growing with every performance. Historically, however, Sassuolo have found it difficult in Rome, with their last away win against Lazio dating back to July 2020. Still, given their current momentum, they will believe they can challenge that record.
This encounter brings together two sides heading in opposite directions. Lazio are struggling for rhythm and goals, while Sassuolo have been one of the league’s most in-form teams in recent weeks. The visitors’ attacking confidence contrasts sharply with the hosts’ lack of cutting edge, though Lazio’s strong home record in this fixture cannot be ignored. The Biancocelesti have historically dominated Sassuolo at the Olimpico, but current form suggests a much tighter contest.
Given the statistical trends, a low-scoring match appears likely. Lazio’s recent games have been characterized by defensive caution and limited attacking output, while Sassuolo’s efficiency in front of goal may be tempered by the pressure of playing away. The previous meeting this season ended 1-0 in favor of Sassuolo, and another narrow result could be on the cards.
BetMines prediction: Under 2.5 goals with 54% probability.
LAZIO: Provedel; Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Pellegrini; Belahyane, Cataldi, Taylor; Isaksen, Maldini, Zaccagni.
SASSUOLO: Muric; Walukiewicz, Idzes, Muharemovic, Garcia; Thorstvedt, Matic, Koné; Berardi, Nzola, Laurienté.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Lazio
Sassuolo
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
1
9
2
8
2.5
7
3
4
6
3.5
9
1
9
1
4.5
9
1
9
1