Coming off disappointing results in the Coppa Italia and Europa League, Lecce and Bologna face each other on Sunday, September 28 at the Stadio Via del Mare in the match valid for Serie A Matchday 5. For the home side, this is a classic last-chance game, as they currently share the bottom spot in the table with just one point, tied with newly promoted Pisa. Eusebio Di Francesco’s team, with the coach’s position already under pressure, is chasing their first league win to boost survival hopes and gain confidence ahead of upcoming fixtures. The Giallorossi, in fact, will soon face several direct relegation battles that they simply cannot afford to lose. Bologna, on the other hand, have been inconsistent in this start to the season and sit mid-table with 6 points. After losing their Europa League opener away to Aston Villa, Vincenzo Italiano’s men now aim to bounce back in Serie A, win in Lecce, and move closer to the European spots. A realistic goal for the Rossoblù, provided they don’t underestimate Lecce’s hunger for points and determination to turn their season around.

Lecce's recent form and stats

Lecce must absolutely react after losing their last four matches, the latest being a 3-0 defeat against AC Milan in the Coppa Italia Round of 32. In their most recent Serie A fixture, played on Friday, September 19, they were beaten 2-1 at home by Cagliari, despite taking the lead through Portuguese defender Tiago Gabriel.

So far, Di Francesco’s side has collected just one point from 1 draw in their opener against Genoa and 3 defeats. Lecce hold the second-worst attack in Serie A with just 2 goals scored, only doing better than Parma (1 goal). Defensively, they are also struggling, with the worst record in the league alongside Torino, conceding 8 goals (2 per game on average).

Another concern ahead of the clash with Bologna is Lecce’s home record. The Giallorossi have won only once in their last 13 Serie A matches at the Stadio Via del Mare, with 9 defeats and 3 draws. In this season’s start, across all competitions, they’ve registered 2 home defeats and just 1 victory, a 2-0 success over Juve Stabia (Serie B) in the Coppa Italia first round.

Bologna's recent form and key stats

Bologna have been inconsistent so far, with 2 wins and 3 defeats from their first five official matches between Serie A and the Europa League. Last week, they narrowly beat Genoa 2-1 thanks to a stoppage-time penalty from Riccardo Orsolini, but then fell 1-0 to Aston Villa in their Europa League group stage opener.

After losing key players like Beukema and Ndoye, Bologna still seem to be searching for their true identity. The main concern is not so much their 6 points in the league (2 wins, 2 losses) but their offensive production, as they’ve averaged just 0.6 goals per game. On the positive side, their defense has been relatively solid, conceding only 0.8 goals per match on average.

At the Stadio Via del Mare, Italiano’s side must break a negative trend: they haven’t won in their last six Serie A away matches (5 defeats, 1 draw). This season, they’ve lost all three of their away games, each time by the same 1-0 scoreline, against Roma, AC Milan, and Aston Villa. Fans are now hoping for Bologna’s first away goal and first away win of the 2025/26 season.

Lecce vs Bologna prediction and tactical overview

The stakes will be high on Sunday: Lecce desperately need points to climb from the bottom of the table, while Bologna want to build momentum after their win over Genoa and push for the European places.

This looks set to be a tight and tactical contest. Aware of Bologna’s attacking potential, Di Francesco is likely to adopt a cautious approach. The Rossoblù attack, although not particularly sharp in recent weeks, remains dangerous on the counter thanks to the pace and one-on-one ability of their wingers.

Lecce will likely defend with two compact lines, relying on Morente and Pierotti to provide both attacking support and defensive cover. This strategy could frustrate Bologna, forcing them to depend on a moment of brilliance from Orsolini to break down the Giallorossi’s defensive block.

By conceding possession to Italiano’s side, who are more comfortable on the ball, Lecce risk creating very few chances in front of Skorupski. In this setup, Stulic could also end up too isolated up front, caught between Lucumì and Vitik.

According to BetMines, fear of losing may prevail over the will to win. A low-scoring game is expected: the prediction leans toward under 2.5 goals, also considering the numbers. Bologna have yet to score away from home this season, while Lecce remain stuck at just 2 goals overall.

• Lecce vs Bologna prediction by BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 55% probability
  
  
• Lecce vs Bologna prediction by BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 45% probability

Probable lineups Lecce vs Bologna

LECCE (4-3-3): Falcone; Kouassi, Gaspar, Tiago Gabriel, Gallo; Coulibaly, Ramadani, Sala; Pierotti, Stulic, Morente. Coach: Eusebio Di Francesco

BOLOGNA (4-2-3-1): Skorupski; Holm, Lucumì, Vitik, Miranda; Moro, Freuler; Orsolini, Fabbian, Dominguez; Castro. Coach: Vincenzo Italiano