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Prediction published on Dec 6, 2025 2:01 PM by Dario in Italy - Serie C: Girone A | Modified on Dec 6, 2025 2:01 PM
The seventeenth round of Serie C Group A features one of its most intriguing fixtures as Lecco host Alcione Milano at the Rigamonti-Ceppi Stadium. The home side sit near the top of the table and are eager to bounce back after a recent dip in form, while the visitors have been one of the pleasant surprises of the season, currently positioned just a few points behind their opponents. With both teams fighting for promotion spots, this clash promises to be a tight and tactical battle on Monday, December 8.
Lecco enter this match looking to recover from two consecutive defeats that have slightly slowed their momentum. Those losses came against strong opposition — Vicenza and Cittadella — both by narrow 1-0 margins. Despite these setbacks, the team remains in third place in the standings with a record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses. Their defensive organization has been a key strength, conceding just 0.6 goals per game on average this season.
In their last five matches, Lecco have recorded 2 wins and 3 defeats, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding 0.8. The team’s recent results have been low-scoring affairs, with each of their last four matches finishing under 1.5 total goals. This trend highlights a side that relies on defensive solidity but has struggled to find the net consistently in recent weeks. Moreover, at least one team failed to score before halftime in 30 of Lecco’s last 31 league games, underlining their cautious approach in the opening stages of matches.
Playing at home, however, remains a strong advantage for Lecco. The Rigamonti-Ceppi has been a difficult ground for visiting teams, and the hosts will look to use that familiarity to regain their rhythm and keep pressure on the top of the table. A victory here would not only end their losing streak but also reaffirm their promotion credentials.
Alcione Milano arrive in Lecco full of confidence after a convincing 2-0 win over Trento Calcio 1921 on November 30. The visitors have been one of the most consistent sides in the division, currently sitting fifth with a record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats. Their defensive record is particularly impressive, conceding just 0.6 goals per game — identical to Lecco’s — while averaging 1.1 goals scored per match.
In their last five outings, Alcione have collected 3 wins and 2 losses, showing resilience and balance between attack and defense. Their matches have been characterized by tight scorelines and disciplined performances. In fact, Under 3.5 goals have been recorded in each of their last ten league matches, and Under 1.5 goals in the second half has occurred in 18 of their last 20 away fixtures. These numbers confirm Alcione’s pragmatic style, prioritizing structure and compactness over attacking flair.
Although winning away at Lecco will be a tough challenge, Alcione’s recent form suggests they are capable of competing on equal terms. A victory would see them draw level on points with their hosts, a remarkable achievement for a team that started the season with modest expectations. Their defensive discipline and ability to manage tight games could prove decisive in this encounter.
This match brings together two sides that share similar strengths — defensive organization, compact shape, and a preference for low-scoring games. Historically, their meetings have been tight: the last head-to-head ended 0-0 in March 2025, and Lecco remain unbeaten in their two previous encounters against Alcione, with 1 win and 1 draw.
Lecco’s recent struggles in front of goal contrast with Alcione’s growing confidence, but both teams have shown that they rarely concede more than once per game. The hosts will likely try to control possession and dictate tempo, while Alcione may look to exploit transitions and set pieces. Given the statistical trends, spectators should not expect a goal fest — both sides have been involved in matches where Under 2.5 goals is a recurring outcome.
Ultimately, this fixture could hinge on small details: a defensive lapse, a set-piece opportunity, or a moment of individual brilliance. Lecco’s home advantage and need to respond after two defeats might give them a slight psychological edge, but Alcione’s consistency and defensive resilience make them a dangerous opponent capable of frustrating the hosts for long stretches.
The most likely outcome is a Lecco win (1) with a 54% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 27%, while an Alcione win (2) stands at 19%.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Lecco
Alcione
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
3
7
2
8
1.5
5
5
4
6
2.5
7
3
7
3
3.5
8
2
8
2
4.5
8
2
9
1