The fourth round of the Premier League concludes on Monday, September 14, when Leeds United welcome Newcastle United to Elland Road. Kick-off is scheduled for 19:00 local time, with both teams protecting unbeaten league records after three matches. Leeds begin the fixture in tenth place, while Newcastle are eighth. Their records are identical in terms of results, with one victory and two draws apiece, but the visitors have produced the stronger attacking numbers. Leeds are averaging 1.0 goal per league game and conceding 0.7, compared with Newcastle's averages of 2.0 scored and 1.3 allowed. The home side have generally been involved in controlled Premier League contests, although their recent 6-3 Carabao Cup defeat against Chelsea and the 4-3 scoreline in the latest head-to-head meeting show that this encounter also has the potential to open up.

Leeds United Recent Form and Key Statistics

Leeds United have made an unbeaten start to their Premier League campaign, recording one win and two draws. They opened the season with a victory away to Nottingham Forest before drawing their first home league match 1-1 against Brentford. Leeds had to come from behind in that contest, while their following 1-1 draw at Brighton saw them take the lead before being pegged back.

Their wider five-match record stands at two victories, two draws and one defeat, with averages of 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. That loss arrived on September 9, when Leeds were beaten 6-3 by Chelsea in the Carabao Cup. Several changes were made for the cup tie, and the players rested in that match are expected to return. The defeat did not produce any new injury concerns, but Joe Rodon and Mateo Joseph will be absent. Ilia Gruev has been recovering from a knee injury, with the Monday scheduling giving him additional time before the game.

Despite the nine-goal cup match, Leeds' Premier League fixtures have followed a much tighter pattern. Their season averages of 1.0 goal scored and 0.7 conceded underline that contrast. The timing statistics are particularly notable: at least one side has failed to score in the first half of Leeds' last 27 matches across all competitions and in each of their previous 20 Premier League games. Their last 11 fixtures have also stayed below 1.5 first-half goals.

• Premier League record: one win, two draws and no defeats.
• Last five matches: two wins, two draws and one loss.
• First-half trend: under 1.5 goals in 11 consecutive matches.
• Second-half trend: over 0.5 total goals in each of their last ten Premier League fixtures.

Newcastle United Recent Form and Key Statistics

Newcastle United also enter the match unbeaten in the Premier League, having collected five points from their opening three fixtures. Their first league game ended in a 2-2 home draw against Liverpool after Newcastle had moved into a 2-0 lead. They then earned a 2-0 victory away to Tottenham before recovering from a two-goal deficit to draw 2-2 at home against Bournemouth.

The visitors have three wins and two draws from their last five matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over that sequence. Their latest result was a 1-0 victory away to Millwall on September 8 in the Carabao Cup. Newcastle have also beaten West Brom in that competition, extending their unbeaten opening to the season. Only one of their last four competitive away fixtures has ended in defeat, while both of their away matches this term have produced victories.

Scoring consistency is one of Newcastle's clearest strengths in the available data. They have found the net at least once in 26 of their last 28 matches. Goals have also regularly arrived after the interval, with over 0.5 second-half goals recorded in 18 of their previous 20 games. Those figures fit their Premier League scoring average of 2.0 per match, although an average of 1.3 goals conceded indicates that opponents have also had opportunities.

Joelinton and Dan Burn will both be absent. Amar Dedic was withdrawn at half-time against Millwall but could recover in time for this fixture. If he is unavailable, Tino Livramento could start after playing 45 minutes in the same cup match.

• Premier League record: one win, two draws and no defeats.
• Last five matches: three wins, two draws and no losses.
• Scoring trend: at least one Newcastle goal in 26 of their last 28 matches.
• Second-half trend: over 0.5 total goals in 18 of their previous 20 fixtures.

Leeds United vs Newcastle United Match Analysis

The contrast between Leeds' controlled league performances and Newcastle's more eventful start makes this an intriguing Premier League preview. Leeds have scored and conceded exactly once in each of their last two league games, while Newcastle's two home draws both ended 2-2. The visitors have already shown two different sides to their game: they protected a clean sheet in the 2-0 win at Tottenham, but they also surrendered a two-goal advantage against Liverpool and needed to erase the same deficit against Bournemouth.

Leeds' first-half statistics suggest that the early stages could be cautious. However, their record of at least one second-half goal in ten straight Premier League matches points towards greater activity after the break. Newcastle display a similar second-half tendency, with a goal after half-time occurring in 18 of their last 20 matches. As a result, the contest may change significantly as it progresses, even if the opening period is measured.

The head-to-head record favors Newcastle, with Leeds registering no wins, three draws and two defeats in the five-match summary provided. Leeds averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded across those meetings. The latest encounter was dramatically different from the previous goalless league meeting at Elland Road, ending 4-3 on January 7, 2026.

The statistical probabilities present a closely balanced match, giving Leeds a 42% chance of victory, Newcastle 34% and the draw 25%. The goals markets lean slightly towards an open contest: both teams to score is rated at 56%, while over 2.5 goals stands at 54%. Leeds' recent league results have been restrained, but Newcastle's reliable scoring record, the hosts' ability to find the net in both of their latest league draws and the high-scoring most recent head-to-head support the possibility of goals at both ends.

Leeds United vs Newcastle United prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 56% probability.