On Thursday, July 10, Legia Warsaw and Aktobe face off at the Stadion Wojska Polskiego for the first leg of the UEFA Europa League 2025/26 first qualifying round. The home side heads into this clash aiming to bounce back after a turbulent season. Following their league title the year before, the White-Reds finished only fifth in the latest Ekstraklasa campaign. The season was salvaged by winning the Polish Cup—the 21st in the club’s history—while on the continental stage, Legia impressed in the UEFA Conference League, reaching the quarter-finals before being knocked out by eventual champions Chelsea. A historic name in Polish football, Legia boasts vast experience in European competitions, including regular appearances in qualifying rounds and a group stage participation in the 2016/17 UEFA Champions League. Their goal is clear: to make the most of home advantage and take control of the tie in the first leg. Aktobe’s path has been quite different, arriving at this clash mid-season in the Kazakhstan Premier League, currently sitting third after 15 rounds. Vyacheslav Levchuk’s men are aiming for a major upset against a more prestigious opponent to break their qualifying curse: in the last two seasons, they were eliminated in the first and third rounds of the Conference League qualifiers, never reaching a main stage of a UEFA competition. The winner of this tie will face Czech side Ostrava in the second round.

Legia Warsaw Recent Form and Key Stats

Legia Warsaw ended last season on a sour note, with only one win in their final four competitive matches, alongside two draws and one defeat. After the Ekstraklasa concluded on May 24, the Polish side played four friendly matches in preparation for European play, securing two wins, a notable draw against Ludogorets (currently in Champions League qualifiers), and one loss.

In the 2024/25 domestic campaign, Legia finished fifth with 54 points from 15 wins, 9 draws, and 10 losses. Coached by Edward Iordanescu, the team showed attacking flair, ranking second in the league with 60 goals scored (an average of 1.77 per match). However, their defensive line proved to be a weakness, conceding 45 goals—an average of 1.32 per game. Their home form was also inconsistent, particularly toward the end of the season: just one win in their last six matches at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, with three defeats and two draws.

Aktobe Recent Form and Key Stats

Unlike Legia Warsaw, Aktobe is deep into their domestic season. On July 4, they played their 15th league game, securing a convincing 2-0 win over Atyrau thanks to a brace from Haitian striker Jairo Jean. That result cemented their position in third place, just five points behind league leaders Astana. It was their second straight win and second consecutive clean sheet under Vyacheslav Levchuk.

Aktobe has been performing well away from home this season: 17 points earned in their first nine away matches, with a record of five wins, two draws, and two defeats. Their recent away form is impressive, with four wins in their last six trips (one draw, one loss), and they’ve been averaging nearly two goals per game. Jairo Jean is the team’s top scorer, with six goals so far in the league.

Legia Warsaw vs Aktobe Prediction and Tactical Overview

Legia Warsaw and Aktobe face each other again more than a decade after their only previous encounters, which took place during the 2014 Europa League qualifiers. On that occasion, the Polish side came out on top both at home (2-0) and away (1-0), underlining a clear technical gap.

Ahead of this first leg of the 2025/26 UEFA Europa League qualifying round, BetMines’ algorithm backs Legia as the favorite: a home win (1) has a 55% probability, compared to 24% for a draw and 21% for an away victory. However, the match could be more balanced than the numbers suggest.

Legia Warsaw certainly holds the upper hand in terms of European experience, with regular participation in UEFA competitions and a home crowd behind them. Their squad also features several players with experience in Europe’s top leagues, an added value in these kinds of fixtures.

On the flip side, Aktobe is in better physical condition, already in full competitive rhythm. Their away form should not be underestimated either: recent performances have shown their defensive solidity and counter-attacking threat.

Considering Legia’s greater international pedigree and home advantage, they are expected to edge this encounter—at least on paper.

• Legia Warsaw vs Aktobe Prediction by BetMines: Legia Warsaw win (1) – 55% Probable 

Predicted Lineups Legia Warsaw vs Aktobe

LEGIA WARSAW (4-3-3): Tobiasz; Wszolek, Jędrzejczyk, Kapuadi, Vinagre; Elitim, Oyedele, Goncalves; Chodyna, Shkurin, Bichakhchyan. Coach: Edward Iordanescu

AKTOBE (4-2-3-1): Vlad; Kairov, Kiki, Andjelkovic, Vatajelu; Usenov, Korzun; Sosah, Shvyrev, Jean; Shushenachev. Coach: Vyacheslav Levchuk