Leixões host Porto II in a Liga Portugal 2 derby on Saturday, October 10, with kick-off scheduled for 14:30 at the Estádio do Mar. The teams arrive in contrasting form: Leixões are eighth after recovering from an uneven start, while Porto II sit 17th and are looking for a response. The home side have won three of their last five matches across competitions, but this fixture has provided reminders that recent form does not always settle a derby. With Leixões seeking to build on their improvement and Porto II needing a result, both sides have plenty at stake.

Leixões Recent Form and Key Stats

Leixões have taken three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.2 goals per game and conceding 1.0. That run includes a 4-0 win over Cinfães in the Portuguese Cup on September 20. In the league, they drew 0-0 away to Torreense in their most recent round and have gone three league matches without defeat.

Their Liga Portugal 2 record stands at three wins, one draw and two losses from six games. Leixões have averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per league match, figures that show a more restrained scoring pattern than their last-five-match average across competitions. The recent cup win nevertheless gives them a convincing result to carry into this home fixture.

There has also been a consistent second-half goal trend at the Estádio do Mar: at least one goal has been scored after half-time in each of Leixões’ last 10 home matches in Liga Portugal 2. That statistic concerns total goals in those games, rather than goals scored by Leixões alone. It is a useful detail for a derby in which the home side will be trying to turn their recent recovery into another league result.

Porto II Recent Form and Key Stats

Porto II have had a more difficult run, recording one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five matches. During that spell, they have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game. Their season figures in Liga Portugal 2 are similar: one win, one draw and four losses, with averages of 0.7 goals for and 2.2 against. They drew 2-2 with Vizela on September 14.

Those numbers highlight the challenge facing the visitors. They have scored less frequently than Leixões this season while allowing more than twice as many goals per match. Still, their recent history at the Estádio do Mar gives them reason not to be dismissed: Porto II won there 4-2 last season and also claimed a 3-1 victory on an earlier visit described in the match background.

Goals have often arrived early in Porto II’s away games. At least one first-half goal has been scored in 18 of their last 20 away matches in Liga Portugal 2. As with the Leixões home statistic, this refers to goals by either team. Porto II will hope to make an impact in such a game, rather than allow the hosts to take control.

Leixões vs Porto II Match Analysis

The current form and season records favor Leixões. They have won three of their past five matches, compared with one win for Porto II, and hold a stronger record at both ends of the pitch in Liga Portugal 2. The supplied win probabilities also put the hosts ahead at 50%, with a draw at 28% and a Porto II win at 22%.

There is a head-to-head counterpoint. Although the supplied five-match summary gives Leixões four wins and one defeat against Porto II, their most recent meeting ended 0-3 on April 20, 2026, and the visitors have recorded wins at the Estádio do Mar in earlier encounters. Leixões therefore have the stronger present-day numbers, but cannot assume that home advantage or Porto II’s league position will decide the contest.

The scoring trends add another dimension without pointing to a certain outcome. Leixões’ last five matches have produced an average of 2.2 goals scored by the home side, while Porto II have conceded 2.2 per game over the same span. Goals have also been a regular feature of the second half in Leixões’ home league fixtures and of the first half in Porto II’s away league fixtures. The central question is whether Leixões can make their better form count against a visiting side that has previously found ways to win this derby on the road.

Leixões vs Porto II prediction from BetMines: Leixões win (1) with 50% probability.