The Valencian derby returns this weekend as Levante UD and Valencia CF face off at the Ciutat de València in a crucial La Liga encounter. Both sides are struggling near the bottom of the table and will be desperate to secure three points that could prove vital in their fight to avoid relegation. The home side sits 19th with 18 points, while the visitors are 17th with 22, making this clash a direct battle for survival.

Levante UD: Searching for a Turning Point

Levante come into this match after a 4-2 defeat against Athletic Club on February 8, a result that exposed their defensive frailties. Over their last five league games, they have recorded one win, two draws, and two losses, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match. Their season record in La Liga stands at 4 wins, 6 draws, and 12 defeats, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game.

Playing at home has not provided much comfort for the Granotas, as they have trailed at half time in six of their last ten home matches. Despite this, the Ciutat de València crowd will be crucial in pushing the team forward. The hosts will be without several key players due to injuries and suspensions, including Matías Moreno, Brugué, and García (injured), as well as Alan Martturro and Jeremy Toljan (suspended). These absences will force the coach to rely heavily on collective effort rather than individual brilliance.

Historically, Levante have struggled in this fixture, winning only once in the last five meetings against Valencia. However, their last head-to-head encounter ended in a narrow 1-0 victory on November 21, 2025, a result that could serve as motivation to repeat the feat in front of their fans.

Valencia CF: Fighting to Stay Afloat

Valencia also arrive in poor form, having lost 0-2 to Real Madrid on February 8. In their last five matches, they have managed two wins and three defeats, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding 1.6 per game. Their overall season record shows 5 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses, with an average of 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded per match.

Several trends highlight Valencia’s inconsistency: Over 0.5 goals have been scored in the second half of their last 19 matches, while at least one team failed to score at half time in 32 of their last 34 league games. This suggests that their matches often start cautiously before opening up after the break. Away from home, they have lost at half time in 8 of their last 12 La Liga fixtures, underlining their vulnerability on the road.

In terms of personnel, the visitors are also dealing with absences. Agirrezabala, Diakhaby, Foulquier, and Rubo are sidelined through injury, while Copete is suspended. These setbacks could limit their options, especially in defense, where stability has been an issue all season.

Head-to-Head and Key Stats

• Ranking in La Liga: Levante 19th, Valencia 17th.


• Last 5 meetings: Levante 1 win, Valencia 3 wins, 1 draw.


• Average goals per head-to-head: Levante 1.4, Valencia 2.0.


• Levante have lost at half time in 6 of their last 10 home matches.


• Under 1.5 goals at half time in 24 of Valencia’s last 26 La Liga matches.


• Over 0.5 goals in the second half in 14 consecutive La Liga matches for Valencia.

These numbers suggest a tight and tactical battle, with both teams struggling to find consistency. Levante’s home advantage could play a decisive role, especially given Valencia’s poor away record and tendency to concede early.

Levante vs Valencia Prediction and Final Analysis

This derby promises to be an intense and emotional affair. Both teams are under pressure, and neither can afford another setback. Levante will look to capitalize on their home support and the urgency of their situation, while Valencia will aim to exploit their opponent’s defensive weaknesses.

Statistically, the match points toward a low-scoring contest. The Under 2.5 goals trend has appeared in 55% of the simulations, while the BTTS – No outcome is slightly favored at 51%. However, the win probabilities remain close: Levante 40%, Draw 27%, and Valencia 33%. Given the context, a narrow home win seems plausible, though a draw would not be surprising.

Both sides have failed to win in their last two league games, and this fixture could be decided by small details — a defensive lapse, a set piece, or a moment of individual brilliance. The local crowd’s energy might just tilt the balance in favor of the hosts.

Levante vs Valencia prediction by BetMines:
Home Win (1) with 40% probability.