On Sunday, September 7, at the Darius & Girėnas Stadium in Kaunas, the Netherlands have a huge opportunity to take control of Group G as they face Lithuania in the sixth round of the FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifiers. As expected, Group G is proving to be quite balanced: Netherlands, Poland, and Finland are all tied at 7 points, but the Dutch sit on top thanks to their superior goal difference and also have a game in hand. By beating Lithuania, Koeman’s men would move up to 10 points, consolidating their lead and putting pressure on their two direct rivals, who will face each other in the other Group G match of the round. It looks like a very achievable mission for the Oranje, who not only have a much higher technical level compared to their opponents, but are also eager to bounce back after drawing at home against Poland in the last match. Lithuania, on the other hand, are still chasing their first victory in this World Cup Qualifying campaign. After losing their opening match against Poland, they have collected three consecutive draws, including the 1-1 at home against Malta on September 4. Despite the home advantage and the desire to give their fans something to celebrate, the Netherlands remain a huge obstacle for Edgaras Jankauskas’s side. With four matches left in the group stage, Gineitis and his teammates will realistically aim to avoid finishing last in the table, battling point by point with Malta.

Lithuania's recent form and key stats

It has been a tough period for Lithuania, as shown by their last five games: zero wins, two draws, and three defeats, with an average of 0.6 goals scored and 1 conceded per match. In their most recent Group G outing, they were held to a 1-1 draw at home against Malta.

After the first four rounds, Jankauskas’s men sit fourth in the table with 3 points, coming from three draws and one loss. At the halfway point, they are already 4 points behind the trio of Netherlands, Poland, and Finland, while holding just a one-point lead over Malta at the bottom.

Home form has been disappointing as well: Lithuania have not won any of their last six home games, with three draws and three defeats. Among the most disappointing results at home, aside from the recent 1-1 against Malta, was the 1-0 loss against Cyprus on September 6, 2024.

Netherlands' recent form and key stats

The Netherlands are unbeaten in their last three matches: two wins and one draw, averaging 3.66 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded per game. In their latest World Cup Qualifier, they drew 1-1 against Poland after wasting an early lead scored by Denzel Dumfries.

The Oranje, who were involved in the Nations League playoffs last March, have played three Group G matches so far, collecting 7 points with two wins and one draw. Despite being level on points with Poland and Finland, Koeman’s men top the group thanks to their superior goal difference. It’s also worth noting they still have one game in hand compared to both rivals.

Away from home, however, their results have been mixed: aside from their recent 2-0 win in Finland, the previous four away matches ended with three draws and one defeat. One of their best recent away performances was the 3-3 draw in Valencia against Spain in the Nations League quarterfinals.

Lithuania vs Netherlands prediction and tactical overview

The Netherlands travel to Lithuania with the clear goal of grabbing all three points and taking a big step toward direct qualification for the 2026 World Cup, ideally hoping for a draw in the other Group G clash between Poland and Finland.

In their first three World Cup Qualifiers, Koeman’s men have conceded just one goal, showcasing a solid defensive unit led by international stars like Van Dijk and De Vrij. In midfield, Gravenberch’s work is key in shielding the backline when Reijnders and De Jong push forward.

Lithuania, by contrast, have scored just one goal in their last three games (including the 5-0 friendly defeat against Denmark), and that only came from a penalty in stoppage time against Malta, when they were already playing with a man advantage.

While the Netherlands are heavy favorites, the BetMines algorithm predicts a game where at least one of the two teams will fail to score. Based on recent form and tactical matchups, it seems most likely that the hosts will come up empty against the strong Dutch defense.

• The Lithuania vs Netherlands prediction from BetMines sees both teams scoring at least one goal with a 34% probability.
  
  
• The Lithuania vs Netherlands prediction from BetMines sees at least one of the two teams failing to score with a 66% probability.

Lithuania vs Netherlands predicted lineups

LITHUANIA (4-2-3-1): Gertmonas; Upstas, Girdvainis, Armalas, Tutyskinas; Vorobjovas, Sirgedas; Lasickas, Gineitis, Dolznikov; Paulauskas. Coach: Edgaras Jankauskas

NETHERLANDS (4-3-3): Verbruggen; Dumfries, De Vrij, Van Dijk, Van de Ven; Gravenberch, Reijnders, De Jong; Simons, Depay, Gakpo. Coach: Ronald Koeman