Liverpool host Chelsea at Anfield on October 28 in the third round of the Carabao Cup. The home side arrive on a four-match winning streak, while Chelsea are looking to respond to a Premier League defeat after winning both of their cup matches so far. Past EFL Cup meetings between these clubs have often been tight, but their recent scoring figures suggest this match could develop differently. Liverpool have scored three goals per game in this season’s competition, while Chelsea have averaged four, setting up an intriguing contrast between cup history and current form.

Liverpool’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Liverpool beat Brighton & Hove Albion 2-0 at home on October 25, extending their winning run across all competitions to four matches. Their broader five-game record stands at four wins and one defeat, with averages of 2.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The results show why they enter this tie with momentum, although the goals-against figure also leaves room for Chelsea to make an impact.

The Reds reached the third round with a 3-1 home win over Tottenham Hotspur. That remains their only Carabao Cup match this season, giving them a competition record of one win, three goals scored and one conceded. They will be seeking a better cup run than in the previous edition, when Crystal Palace eliminated them in the fourth round with a 3-0 win at Anfield.

Liverpool’s longer-term home figures in this competition point strongly towards goalmouth action: their last nine home Carabao Cup matches have all produced over 2.5 total goals. Across all competitions, at least two goals have been scored in 20 of their last 21 home matches. They have also avoided being behind at half-time in 20 of those 21 fixtures. Those trends strengthen their home case without making this third-round meeting a straightforward one.

Chelsea’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Chelsea travel to Anfield after a 2-0 home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League on October 24. That result ended a two-match winning streak. Over their last five games, the Blues have recorded two wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Their immediate challenge is to put the Tottenham setback behind them against a Liverpool side carrying stronger recent results.

The visitors have nevertheless made an impressive attacking start to this Carabao Cup campaign. They have won both matches in the current edition, most recently beating Leeds United 6-3 at home in the second round. Their competition averages stand at four goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match. The Leeds result underlined their ability to create goals, but also showed that an open cup game does not necessarily work entirely in their favour.

Goals have been a consistent feature of Chelsea’s wider schedule. Their last 12 matches have each contained more than 1.5 total goals, as have their last 14 away fixtures. At least one second-half goal has been scored in each of their past 13 matches. These figures provide a different perspective from the clubs’ more restrained EFL Cup history and suggest Chelsea’s recent games have rarely stayed quiet throughout.

Liverpool vs Chelsea Match Analysis

The history of this fixture calls for some caution when assessing the goal trends. The clubs’ last EFL Cup meeting ended 0-0, and their previous ten meetings in the competition each finished with fewer than four goals. Their most recent head-to-head encounter, on May 9, ended 1-1. In the supplied five-match head-to-head summary, Liverpool have one win, two draws and two defeats, scoring an average of 1.0 goal and conceding 1.4.

Anfield presents another challenge for Chelsea, who have failed to win on their last five visits according to the match record provided. Liverpool’s four consecutive wins and strong home scoring trends add to the difficulty of this trip. Still, Chelsea’s two cup victories and four-goal average in the competition make it difficult to dismiss their attacking prospects on the basis of the recent league defeat alone.

For this Liverpool vs Chelsea Carabao Cup preview, the central question is which set of evidence carries more weight: the tighter EFL Cup meetings between the sides or their current goal-heavy patterns. The historical results leave open the possibility of another close contest, while Liverpool’s nine straight home cup games with at least three total goals and Chelsea’s productive start to this edition support a more open match. The recent 1-1 between them shows neither side is guaranteed to take control, but the current scoring records make goals the clearest theme heading into the third round.

Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 67% probability.