Livorno welcome Atalanta II to Stadio Armando Picchi on Sunday, September 6, with kick-off scheduled for 16:00 local time. The fixture forms part of the third round of the Serie C: Girone B season and will be the first competitive meeting between the two teams. Livorno only recently returned to Serie C after several years outside the professional divisions, while this is the fourth season of the Atalanta Under-23 project. The hosts have started positively, collecting four points from their opening two league games, while the visitors have taken three. With Livorno unbeaten across their last five matches and Atalanta II still adjusting after significant changes, the contest brings together two sides with contrasting recent patterns. Livorno's defensive numbers have been particularly solid, but Atalanta II arrive after a 2-1 victory and have regularly featured in games containing second-half goals.

Livorno's Recent Form and Key Statistics

Livorno enter the match unbeaten in their last five outings, recording two wins and three draws. Across that sequence, they averaged 1.2 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game. Their most recent result was a 0-0 draw against Novara on September 3, extending a stable run in which the team has proved difficult to defeat.

Their Serie C campaign has also begun encouragingly. Livorno opened with a home victory over Torres before drawing with Pineto, leaving their league record at one win, one draw and no defeats. They have averaged 1.0 goal scored and 0.5 conceded in their first two league fixtures. Those figures underline the balance behind their start: the hosts have not needed a high scoring output to earn results because they have kept their goals-against average low.

There is a clear contrast between Livorno's long-term home scoring record and their latest results. They have scored at least once in each of their last 16 home matches, including their last 15 home fixtures in Serie C: Girone B. However, their two most recent matches have both finished with under 0.5 total goals. This suggests that the hosts possess an established ability to find the net at home, even though their latest games have been considerably tighter.

• Livorno are eighth in Serie C: Girone B.
• They are unbeaten in five matches, with two victories and three draws.
• They have conceded an average of 0.6 goals across those five games.
• Livorno have scored in each of their last 16 home fixtures.
• Both teams scored during the second half in nine of their last 15 home league matches.

Atalanta II's Recent Form and Key Statistics

Atalanta II travel to Livorno after defeating Guidonia Montecelio 1937 FC 2-1 on August 30. Their opening two league matches have produced one win and one defeat, with averages of 1.0 goal scored and 1.5 conceded. That record places them 13th in the current Serie C: Girone B ranking.

The visitors have experienced more varied results than their opponents. Their last five matches have delivered two wins, one draw and two defeats, while they have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Those figures point to a less controlled sequence than Livorno's, with Atalanta II both scoring and allowing more goals on average.

The squad underwent considerable generational turnover, with several young players arriving, including former Bayern player Puljic. The impact of those changes is still being assessed, and Puljic may also receive first-team call-ups. Even so, Atalanta II have already shown potential: they drew with Cittadella in the Coppa Italia Serie C before losing on penalties, while the victory over Guidonia Montecelio provided a positive league response.

Second-half action has been a recurring feature of their matches. More than 0.5 goals were scored after the interval in 19 of Atalanta II's last 21 games. That trend could become relevant against a Livorno side whose home league fixtures have also produced a notable number of second-half exchanges.

• Atalanta II have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five matches.
• They averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across that run.
• Their league record stands at one victory and one defeat.
• At least one second-half goal was recorded in 19 of their last 21 matches.

Livorno vs Atalanta II Match Analysis

The absence of previous head-to-head meetings adds uncertainty to the analysis. The clubs competed in different groups last season, and Atalanta II have since made substantial changes to their squad. Livorno, meanwhile, can approach the match with confidence after avoiding defeat in five consecutive fixtures and taking four points from their opening two league games.

The home side's defensive record is one of the clearest factors before kick-off. Livorno have conceded only three goals across their last five matches based on their average of 0.6 per game, while their first two league fixtures produced an average of 0.5 goals conceded. Their latest 0-0 result against Novara also continued a sequence of two matches with no goals from either side.

Atalanta II offer a different profile. Their last five games averaged more goals both scored and conceded, and the visitors showed attacking capability in the 2-1 win over Guidonia Montecelio. Nevertheless, they face a Livorno team that has been consistent at home in front of goal and has already won its first home league match of the campaign.

The statistical probabilities reflect how finely balanced the fixture appears. Atalanta II have a 37% win probability, Livorno stand at 35%, and the draw is rated at 29%. The goals markets are similarly close: both teams to score is assessed at 53%, while under 2.5 goals also carries a 53% probability. Livorno's recent low-scoring results and strong defensive average make a restrained contest a coherent possibility, even with the visitors' frequent second-half goal trend.

Livorno vs Atalanta II prediction from BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 53% probability.