Livorno and Pianese meet on Saturday, September 26, 2026, at 15:30 local time in the seventh round of Serie C: Girone B. The Tuscan derby at the Stadio Armando Picchi brings together two teams with contrasting starts to the season. Livorno sit fifth after collecting three wins, two draws and one defeat, while Pianese are 18th with three draws and three losses. The hosts therefore enter the fixture in the stronger position, but the visitors have proved difficult to beat on several occasions. With Livorno looking to remain close to the leading places and Pianese still searching for their first league victory, this encounter represents an important early-season test for both sides.

Livorno Recent Form and Key Statistics

Livorno have made a positive start to their Serie C campaign. Their record of three wins, two draws and one defeat has taken them to fifth place, while their season averages stand at 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match. Those figures suggest a competitive side capable of earning results without producing particularly wide scorelines.

The team coached by Cristiano Lucarelli drew 1-1 with Guidonia Montecelio 1937 FC on September 21. Across their last five matches, Livorno have registered two victories, two draws and one loss, scoring and conceding an average of exactly 1.0 goal per game. That sequence reflects a balanced run in which the Amaranto have generally remained competitive, even when they have not taken all three points.

Home form provides one of the clearest reasons for Livorno to approach this derby with confidence. They have scored at least once in each of their last 18 home matches, including their last 17 home fixtures in Serie C: Girone B. Maintaining such a long scoring sequence gives the hosts a reliable foundation, particularly against opponents who have yet to win this season.

There are also notable corner trends surrounding Livorno. Fewer than 9.5 corners were recorded in their last 13 home league matches, while 25 of their previous 27 Serie C fixtures finished with fewer than 10.5 corners. These numbers point toward matches that have regularly stayed below high corner totals, even when Livorno have managed to find the net.

Pianese Recent Form and Key Statistics

Pianese arrive in Livorno occupying 18th place. Their six league matches have produced no wins, three draws and three defeats, with averages of 0.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. The defensive return is comparable to Livorno's, but the visitors' limited attacking output has made it difficult for them to turn close contests into victories.

Their latest appearance ended in a 1-1 draw against Sambenedettese on September 21. Pianese have drawn three and lost two of their last five games, averaging only 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded during that period. Although the absence of a victory remains a concern, conceding fewer than one goal per match across those five fixtures shows that they have often kept games tight.

First-half statistics reinforce the possibility of a cautious opening. Fewer than 1.5 goals were scored before half-time in 19 of Pianese's last 21 matches. In addition, Pianese failed to score in six of their last 16 Serie C games and in six of their previous 21 matches across the available sequence. Away from home, they were held scoreless in three of their last 13 league trips and two of their last 10 away fixtures.

These attacking figures underline the challenge facing Pianese at the Stadio Armando Picchi. The visitors need a result to improve their position, yet they must find a way through a Livorno side that has lost only once in six league games. Their recent low concession rate may help them remain in contention, but greater effectiveness in front of goal will be required if they are to claim their first win of the campaign.

Livorno vs Pianese Match Analysis

The available numbers give Livorno the advantage, although they do not suggest that the hosts will have a straightforward afternoon. The home side have the better league record, the stronger recent form and a long scoring run at their own ground. Pianese, meanwhile, have not won any of their opening six matches and are averaging only 0.3 goals per league game.

Even so, the head-to-head record provides an important warning for Livorno. In the supplied summary, they have recorded no victories, two draws and three defeats against Pianese, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded. The most recent meeting ended in a 2-1 Pianese victory on February 15, 2026. Past meetings therefore offer the visitors encouragement despite the current gap between the teams in the standings.

The broader probabilities also describe a potentially close derby. Livorno have a 47% win probability, compared with 28% for a draw and 25% for a Pianese victory. The under 2.5-goal outcome is rated at 58%, while both teams not to score stands at 52%. Those percentages fit the season data: Livorno have been averaging 1.2 goals and Pianese only 0.3, with both teams conceding 1.0 per league match.

Livorno's consistency and home scoring streak make them the more convincing side ahead of kick-off, but Pianese's recent defensive average and favorable head-to-head record prevent this from looking like a guaranteed home victory. A compact contest appears plausible, with the hosts carrying the stronger chance of controlling the result while a draw remains a credible possibility.

Livorno vs Pianese prediction from BetMines: Livorno or Draw (1X) with 75% probability.