The final round of the Europa League league phase brings an intriguing clash between LOSC Lille and SC Freiburg at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy. The French side sit 21st in the standings with nine points, while the German visitors occupy third place with 17. For Lille, this is a must-win encounter to keep their faint hopes of reaching the top 24 alive, whereas Freiburg aim to secure a top-eight finish and maintain their unbeaten record in the competition.

LOSC Lille’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Lille approach this decisive fixture in a worrying run of form. Their recent 1–4 home defeat to Strasbourg in Ligue 1 marked their fifth consecutive loss across all competitions. In the Europa League, they have recorded three wins and four defeats, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per match while conceding 1.3. Despite showing attacking potential earlier in the campaign, their defensive fragility has been costly, particularly in the second halves of games.

The French side have failed to draw any of their last 19 matches, underlining their all-or-nothing approach. Moreover, they have been trailing at half-time in each of their last four fixtures, a trend that highlights their slow starts. Over their last five matches in all competitions, Lille have averaged just 0.6 goals scored while conceding 2.6 per game. These numbers reflect a team struggling to find balance and confidence at a crucial stage of the season.

• Europa League record: W3 · D0 · L4


• Average goals: 1.6 scored · 1.3 conceded


• Last 5 matches: 0 wins, 0 draws, 5 defeats


• No draws in their last 19 matches


• Lost at half-time in their last 4 matches

With their Europa League hopes hanging by a thread, Lille must rediscover their attacking rhythm and defensive discipline. A victory could still see them sneak into the playoff places, but anything less would likely end their European journey.

SC Freiburg’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Freiburg arrive in northern France full of confidence after a 2–1 Bundesliga win over FC Köln. Their Europa League campaign has been exemplary so far: five wins and two draws, with no defeats. They have averaged 1.4 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per match in the competition, making them one of the most consistent sides in the league phase.

The German club’s resilience has been a key factor in their success. They have avoided defeat in seven of their last eight matches across all competitions (W5, D2, L1). Away from home, Freiburg have shown a solid defensive structure, with under 0.5 total goals scored in three of their last eleven away fixtures, and in two of their last ten Europa League away games. This suggests a pragmatic approach when playing on the road, prioritizing control and efficiency over high-scoring affairs.

• Europa League record: W5 · D2 · L0


• Average goals: 1.4 scored · 0.4 conceded


• Last 5 matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat


• Unbeaten in the Europa League this season


• Under 0.5 goals in 2 of their last 10 Europa League away matches

Freiburg’s disciplined performances and ability to manage tight games have been their hallmark. With qualification already secured, they will still be motivated to finish the group stage unbeaten and possibly climb higher in the standings.

Lille vs Freiburg Analysis and Prediction

This encounter pits two teams in contrasting form. Lille are desperate to halt their losing streak and salvage their European campaign, while Freiburg look to extend their unbeaten run and confirm their place among the top contenders. The 18-place gap between them in the standings reflects their differing trajectories this season.

Given Lille’s recent defensive struggles and Freiburg’s consistency, the visitors appear better positioned to control the tempo of the match. However, Lille’s urgency and home advantage could make this a competitive contest. The statistics suggest a balanced game, with both teams likely to find the net — Lille have scored in most of their Europa League fixtures, and Freiburg’s attack has been reliable throughout the campaign.

According to the data, the probability distribution for the 1X2 market stands at 46% for a Lille win, 24% for a draw, and 30% for a Freiburg victory. The Both Teams To Score – Yes option is rated at 56%, while Over 2.5 goals also carries a 56% likelihood, indicating potential for an open and entertaining match.

Taking into account form, motivation, and statistical trends, the most reasonable outcome points towards a balanced affair where both sides could share the spoils or Freiburg might edge it thanks to their superior momentum.

Lille vs Freiburg prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 56% probability.