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Prediction published on Jul 21, 2025 4:58 PM by Dario in Europe - Europa League | Modified on Jul 22, 2025 11:15 AM
On Thursday, July 24, at the Stockhorn Arena in Thun, Lugano will host CFR Cluj in the first leg of the second qualifying round of the UEFA Europa League. For the Swiss side, managed by the young head coach Mattia Croci-Torti, this will be their first official match of the 2025/26 season. After finishing fourth in the Swiss Super League— their worst result in two years—Lugano aims to turn the page and kick off the new campaign with a statement win over CFR Cluj. The Swiss team has decent international experience, having reached the Europa League group stage twice (last time in 2019/20) and playing in the inaugural expanded edition of the Conference League last season, where they impressively made it to the Round of 16 before being knocked out by Celje. While home advantage typically plays a key role, Lugano’s case is peculiar, as they struggled at home last season and won’t even be playing in their usual stadium this time, which could discourage less dedicated supporters. Despite it being only July, CFR Cluj are already well into their season, having played the first two matchdays of the 2025/26 Romanian Superliga as well as the first qualifying round of the Europa League. Dan Petrescu’s men progressed to this round after eliminating Paks, thanks to a 3-0 home win following a 0-0 draw in Hungary. The Romanian side is also looking to improve on last season’s performance and once again challenge for their domestic league title, which they haven't won since 2021. Although one of the most successful Romanian clubs in recent years, CFR Cluj has yet to make a real mark on the European stage. After taking part in two editions of the Champions League (between 2010 and 2013), their most notable recent European appearances came in the 2021/22 and 2022/23 Conference League campaigns, where they were eliminated in the group stage and then in the knockout round play-offs against Lazio. Returning from Switzerland unbeaten would be a strong start to their new European journey and significantly increase their chances of reaching the group stage again.
Since the end of the domestic season on May 24 (1-1 draw vs Young Boys), Lugano has played a handful of summer friendlies to build rhythm and match fitness. Their last three matches resulted in two wins (against Rapperswil-Jona and Pro Vercelli) and one loss (against Thun), scoring six goals overall (exactly two per game) and conceding five.
Their overall form is still relatively positive, having lost just one of their last five matches. One of Lugano’s main issues last season was their home form, recording 9 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses. Defensively, they struggled at home, conceding 30 goals for an average of 1.58 per match.
CFR Cluj is going through a demanding run of fixtures. After beating Paks 3-0 in the second leg of the Europa League first qualifying round, they were back on the pitch just three days later in the second round of the Superliga, drawing 1-1 against Rapid Bucharest. Postolachi scored again, his second goal in as many league games.
Since the start of their 2025/26 season on July 5, Petrescu’s side has played three away matches. The results have not been entirely favorable: two draws and one loss (to FCSB in the Romanian Supercup), with 3 goals scored and 2 conceded. That said, CFR Cluj’s overall recent form remains strong, having won or drawn fifteen of their last sixteen matches, both home and away.
Lugano and CFR Cluj will face each other for the first time in history in what promises to be a tightly contested and intense match. Both sides are eager to advance in Europe, with the winner set to meet either Levski or Braga in the next round—a challenging but not insurmountable task.
The Lugano vs CFR Cluj prediction from BetMines indicates a very balanced game, though the visitors appear to have a slight edge, at least in terms of match fitness. CFR Cluj are already in the thick of their domestic season and have played two competitive legs in Europe, giving them a crucial physical advantage at this stage.
Given how evenly matched the two teams are on paper, the BetMines algorithm leans toward a match where both teams are likely to score—a trend seen in six of Lugano’s last seven games (including friendlies) and in seven of CFR Cluj’s last eight away fixtures.
Key players to watch include Giorgios Koutsias, one of Lugano’s standout performers in preseason, and Moldovan striker Virgiliu Postolachi, the main offensive threat for CFR Cluj.
LUGANO (4-3-3): Saipi; Zanotti, Papadopoulos, Mai, El Wafi; Belhadj, Grgic, Bislimi; Steffen, Koutsias, Dos Santos. Coach: Croci-Torti
CFR CLUJ (4-3-3): Hindrich; Abeid, Sinyan, Bolgado, Camora; Paun, Djokovic, Muhar; Deac, Postolachi, Sfait.
Coach: Petrescu
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Lugano
CFR Cluj
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
2
8
1.5
4
6
5
5
2.5
6
4
7
3
3.5
7
3
9
1
4.5
10
0
9
1