The upcoming Copa Sudamericana clash between CSD Macará and Alianza Atlético de Sullana promises to be a decisive encounter in Group Stage action. Taking place at the Estadio Bellavista, this fixture could determine the fate of both sides in the competition. The home team, nicknamed “Viejo y Querido,” have surprised many by leading the group after remaining unbeaten in their first four matches. However, their home form has not been entirely convincing, with only three wins in their last ten matches played in Ambato. Their defensive organization has been the key to their success, conceding just 18 goals in 20 matches across all competitions. Meanwhile, the visitors from Sullana have endured a disappointing return to international football, being among the first teams eliminated after collecting only one point from their opening four games.

Macará’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Macará enter this match as group leaders, showing consistency and balance throughout the Copa Sudamericana campaign. According to the latest data, they have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses in the tournament, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game. Despite a recent 0-3 defeat against Independiente del Valle on May 16, the team remains competitive and difficult to break down. Over their last five matches in all competitions, Macará have achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring an average of 1.2 goals while conceding 1.4.

At home, the Ambato-based side have shown mixed results, winning only three of their last ten matches. Yet, their defensive discipline continues to be their strongest asset, with only 20 goals conceded in 21 games this year. The team’s ability to maintain compactness and capitalize on key moments has allowed them to stay at the top of the group standings. With the support of their fans and the motivation to secure qualification, Macará will aim to turn their home ground into a fortress once again.

• Ranking: 1st in Copa Sudamericana group


• Last 5 matches: 2W – 1D – 2L


• Average goals scored: 1.2 per match


• Average goals conceded: 1.4 per match


• Last result: Lost 0-3 vs Independiente del Valle

Alianza Atlético’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Alianza Atlético de Sullana have struggled to find rhythm in this year’s Copa Sudamericana. Their record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 defeats reflects a campaign marked by inconsistency and a lack of attacking efficiency. The team averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match in the tournament, which has left them at the bottom of the group standings. However, their most recent performance brought a glimmer of hope, as they defeated ADC Juan Pablo II 0-2 on May 16, showing signs of improvement in both defense and attack.

In their last five matches across all competitions, Alianza Atlético have managed 2 wins and 3 losses, scoring and conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game. Their away form remains a concern, with only two victories in their last ten away fixtures. The team’s defensive vulnerabilities have been evident throughout the season, having allowed 20 goals in 21 matches. To stand a chance in Ambato, they will need to tighten their backline and take advantage of counterattacking opportunities.

• Ranking: 4th in Copa Sudamericana group


• Last 5 matches: 2W – 0D – 3L


• Average goals scored: 1.4 per match


• Average goals conceded: 1.4 per match


• Last result: Won 0-2 vs ADC Juan Pablo II

Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview

The most recent meeting between Macará and Alianza Atlético ended in a 0-2 victory for the Ecuadorian side on May 1, 2026. Historically, Macará have had the upper hand, winning their only recorded encounter with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded. This record, combined with their current group leadership, gives them a psychological advantage heading into this fixture.

Tactically, Macará are expected to rely on their solid defensive structure and quick transitions to exploit spaces left by the visitors. Their compact midfield and disciplined backline have been crucial in maintaining control of matches. Alianza Atlético, on the other hand, will likely focus on defensive organization and counterattacks, hoping to replicate the efficiency shown in their recent 0-2 win. The key for the Peruvian side will be maintaining concentration and avoiding early mistakes that could tilt the balance in favor of the hosts.

Macará vs Alianza Atlético Prediction

With both teams showing contrasting trajectories in the Copa Sudamericana, Macará appear better positioned to secure a positive result. Their defensive consistency and home advantage could prove decisive against an Alianza Atlético side that has struggled away from home. The statistical outlook also supports a low-scoring match, with Under 2.5 goals appearing slightly more probable based on recent trends.

According to the latest probabilities, the chances for each outcome are as follows: Macará win (1) 43%, Draw (X) 28%, and Alianza Atlético win (2) 30%. Additionally, the likelihood of Both Teams To Score – No stands at 54%, while Under 2.5 goals has a 58% probability.

Macará vs Alianza Atlético prediction from BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 58% probability.