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Prediction published on Aug 22, 2026 8:04 PM by Dario in Spain - La Liga | Modified on Aug 22, 2026 8:04 PM
Málaga welcome Deportivo A Coruña to Estadio La Rosaleda on August 24, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 19:30 local time. The La Liga fixture brings together two recently promoted clubs that previously had to rebuild from 1ª RFEF. Málaga return home after opening their campaign with a 2-0 defeat against Atlético de Madrid, while Deportivo began with a 1-1 draw against Elche. With both teams still searching for their first league victory of the season, this meeting offers an early opportunity to establish momentum.
Málaga begin the match in 18th place after losing their only La Liga fixture so far. Their 2-0 defeat away to Atlético de Madrid on August 19 nevertheless included an encouraging defensive spell, as the promoted side kept the score at 0-0 until the 70th minute. Although they ultimately left empty-handed, their ability to remain competitive for most of the contest provides a positive foundation for their first home league appearance.
The hosts recorded one win, two draws and two defeats across their last five matches. During that sequence, they averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Their early season league figures are naturally more limited: no wins or draws from one match, with averages of 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 allowed.
One of the clearest timing trends concerns the period after the interval. More than 0.5 second-half goals were recorded in 23 of Málaga’s last 25 matches. At the same time, only two of their previous ten home fixtures finished without a goal, showing that completely scoreless games have been relatively uncommon at La Rosaleda.
Málaga’s return to the top division followed a notable recovery during the previous campaign. Funes took charge when the club was near the lower end of the standings and guided the team into the play-offs. Promotion was then secured with a 2-1 result in Almería. For this match, the hosts have several availability concerns: Diego Murillo, Aarón Ochoa, Calero, Moussa and Adrián Niño are unavailable, while Dotor is considered doubtful.
Deportivo A Coruña arrive in eighth place with one point from their opening league match. They drew 1-1 with Elche on August 17 after conceding the equaliser during the final quarter of the contest. Aubameyang scored Deportivo’s goal, but the late response from Elche prevented the Galician side from beginning the campaign with a victory.
Deportivo’s latest five-match record consists of one win, three draws and one defeat. They averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded over that period, figures that reflect a run containing more draws than decisive results. Their La Liga averages are identical after the opening round, with one goal scored and one allowed.
The visitors do possess a significant attacking sequence: Deportivo have scored at least once in each of their last 14 matches. That record suggests Málaga cannot rely solely on their long goalless spell against Atlético as evidence that another clean sheet will follow. Deportivo have strengthened their squad with Aubameyang, Amatucci and Leo Román, while Yeremay is available again for this fixture. Noé Carrillo, however, will miss the match.
Deportivo achieved promotion more directly than Málaga, reaching the objective alongside Racing. Their challenge now is to translate that successful campaign into competitive La Liga performances. The opening draw showed both sides of their position: they were capable of taking the lead, but unable to protect it through the closing stages.
The available numbers point to a closely balanced contest. Málaga have a 37% win probability, compared with 35% for Deportivo A Coruña and 28% for the draw. That narrow separation leaves neither side with a commanding advantage, even though Málaga can draw encouragement from playing their first home match since returning to the division.
Recent direct meetings also favour a competitive game rather than a clear victory for either team. The latest head-to-head ended 1-1 on April 4, 2026. Across the supplied head-to-head summary, Málaga recorded two wins and three draws without a defeat, averaging 1.2 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded. Deportivo have also found this particular away fixture difficult from an attacking perspective, scoring just two goals across their last five visits to La Rosaleda.
The historical scoring pattern is especially relevant. Six of the last seven meetings produced fewer than three goals, while the current Under 2.5-goal probability stands at 54%. Málaga failed to score in their opening defeat, and Deportivo’s first match finished with two total goals. Although the visitors’ 14-match scoring streak must be respected, their recent five-game average remains only one goal per match.
There are competing indicators. Both Teams To Score carries a 52% probability, and Málaga’s recent matches have averaged more goals than their opening league result suggests. However, the direct encounters, Deportivo’s limited scoring record at La Rosaleda and the cautious nature of both opening-round results provide a stronger case for a match staying below three goals. The second half may still be decisive, given Málaga’s repeated record of goals after the break.
Málaga: Herrero; Puga, Galilea, Recio, Garrido; Dotor, Lorenzo, Merino; Chupe, Larrubia, Muñoz.
Deportivo A Coruña: Román; Altimira, Noubi, Quagliata, Ede; Navarro, Amatucci, Asp Jensen, Soriano; Aubameyang, Nsongo.
Málaga vs Deportivo A Coruña prediction from BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 54% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Málaga
Deportivo A Coruña
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
1
9
1.5
2
8
4
6
2.5
4
6
7
3
3.5
6
4
8
2
4.5
8
2
10
0