Malta host Gibraltar on Thursday, October 1, in their second UEFA Nations League Group D1 match. Malta opened with a 2-1 victory away to Andorra and sit first in the group, two points ahead of second-placed Gibraltar, who drew 0-0 with Andorra. The visitors have not won any of their last 18 away matches, while Malta arrive on a three-match winning run. The fixture at Ta'Qali National Stadium gives the hosts an opportunity to build on their opening result, but Gibraltar's recent defensive figures suggest they may be difficult to break down.

Malta's Recent Form and Key Stats

Malta began their Nations League campaign by coming from behind to beat Andorra 2-1 away from home. Irvin Cardona scored and provided an assist in that match. Malta then recorded a 2-0 win over Liechtenstein on September 27, extending their run to three consecutive victories. According to the supplied match account, they have conceded only once across those three wins.

The broader five-match picture is less uniform: Malta have won three and lost two, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. They have failed to score in only three of their last 10 matches, though their Nations League fixtures have tended to stay within a relatively narrow scoring range. Each of Malta's last 12 matches in this competition has featured fewer than four total goals.

Timing could be important for the hosts. At least one second-half goal has been scored in each of Malta's last 11 matches, yet they have failed to lead at half-time in 34 of their last 36. Those trends leave room for a match that develops after the interval rather than one Malta control from the opening minutes. Their opening Nations League win, however, has already shown they can recover from falling behind.

Gibraltar's Recent Form and Key Stats

Gibraltar took a point from their first Group D1 match but could not score in the 0-0 home draw with Andorra on September 27. Their last two matches have both finished without a goal for either side. Finding a way through is therefore an immediate concern as they travel to face a Malta team that beat the same opponent on matchday one.

Gibraltar's last five results comprise two wins, two draws and one defeat, with averages of 1.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per match. That record is stronger than their longer-term away form: they have gone 18 away matches without a win and have lost their last five on the road. They have also failed to win 37 of their last 40 matches overall. The contrast between their recent five-game figures and their away record is one of the central questions ahead of this fixture.

Early goals have been scarce in Gibraltar's Nations League matches, with fewer than two first-half goals in each of their last 10 in the competition. They have nevertheless trailed at the break in 11 of their last 18 away games. Their previous trips to face Malta also offer little encouragement: Gibraltar lost both away meetings mentioned in the supplied match account and did not score in either.

Malta vs Gibraltar Match Analysis

The opening Group D1 results provide a direct comparison. Malta beat Andorra 2-1 away, whereas Gibraltar drew 0-0 with Andorra at home. Combined with Malta's three straight wins and Gibraltar's 18-match away winless run, that gives the hosts the stronger case going into Thursday's meeting. Gibraltar's low recent goals-against average, however, is a reason not to assume the match will be settled quickly.

Malta have won two of the three head-to-head meetings in the supplied record, with Gibraltar winning the other. The most recent meeting finished 1-0 on September 6, 2023, and the head-to-head figures list Malta at averages of 1.0 goal scored and 0.3 conceded. Those numbers, together with Malta's run of under 3.5 total goals in Nations League matches, point towards a contest in which a small number of chances could matter.

The first half presents competing signals: Malta rarely lead at the interval, while Gibraltar have often fallen behind by half-time away from home. Gibraltar's current pair of goalless matches adds another challenge for the visitors, even if their last five results show they have been capable of scoring recently. On balance, Malta's home advantage, winning run and superior results in this matchup make them the more convincing choice, without ruling out a tight game.

Malta vs Gibraltar prediction from BetMines: Malta win (1) with 73% probability.