Manchester United, with a convincing 3-0 away win over Athletic Club a week ago at San Mamés, have already taken a huge step towards qualifying for the UEFA Europa League final, scheduled for May 21st—right at the Basque stadium. The Red Devils, dreaming of replicating their 2017 success, are showing a completely different face in Europe compared to their Premier League form, where they currently sit 15th, level on points with a potential UEL final opponent: Tottenham. In Europe, Manchester United started strong, finishing third in the single group stage with 18 points—just one behind Athletic Club—thanks to five wins and three draws. In the knockout stages, the English side eliminated Real Sociedad with an aggregate 5-2 scoreline in the Round of 16 before narrowly overcoming Olympique Lyon in the quarter-finals, winning 5-4 at Old Trafford in extra time. Athletic Club followed a similar path in the first part of the tournament, recording six wins, one draw, and just one loss. Before meeting the Red Devils in the semi-finals, they edged past Roma in the Round of 16 and Rangers in the quarter-finals. Despite the huge challenge awaiting them in the return leg at Old Trafford, the Basque side are dreaming of reaching the final in their home stadium—but to do so, they need to win by at least a three-goal margin in Manchester, where no team has won in this Europa League campaign.

Manchester United Recent Form and Key Stats

Ruben Amorim's side suffered their 16th Premier League defeat last weekend, losing 4-3 away at Brentford with a heavily rotated squad. The Red Devils have found joy only in the Europa League recently, as they haven't won a domestic match since their 3-0 victory over Leicester on March 16.

In UEL, Amorim’s team is still unbeaten, with 8 wins and 5 draws in 13 matches. Højlund and teammates boast the competition’s best attack with 31 goals—averaging 2.38 per match. At Old Trafford, they've recorded 5 wins and 1 draw, averaging 2.83 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. In the knockout phase, they beat Real Sociedad 4-1 in the Round of 16 and narrowly edged Olympique Lyon 5-4 in extra time in the quarters.

Athletic Club Recent Form and Key Stats

Athletic Club are coming off a goalless draw in the Basque derby against Real Sociedad—ironically, the same team eliminated by Manchester United in the Round of 16. Ernesto Valverde’s side has had mixed results recently: over their last five matches, they've earned one draw, two wins, and two losses, averaging just 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match.

In the Europa League, the Basques have 8 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. Their away form is perfectly balanced with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats—scoring 7 goals and conceding 8. After finishing second in the single group stage, they have failed to win away from home in the knockout rounds: a 2-1 loss at Roma in the Round of 16 first leg and a 0-0 draw against Rangers.

Manchester United vs Athletic Club Prediction and Tactical Overview

The first leg was a one-sided affair, with Manchester United opening the scoring through a Casemiro header in the 30th minute before Bruno Fernandes netted twice to make it 3-0 before halftime, taking his tournament tally to seven goals. The Red Devils took full advantage of Vivian’s red card in the 35th minute (when the score was still 1-0), dominating possession (73%) and creating further chances—hitting the woodwork twice.

Given their dominant Europa League campaign—still unbeaten—and their 11-match unbeaten run at Old Trafford in this competition, it’s hard to imagine Athletic Club pulling off a comeback.

Valverde’s men, needing to chase the game, are expected to start aggressively and rely on their top talents—especially the Williams brothers. However, pushing forward may leave them exposed to United’s high pressing, as already seen in the early minutes of the first leg at San Mamés.

According to the BetMines algorithm, the prediction for Manchester United vs Athletic Club leans towards a home win, which would see the Red Devils through to the May 21 final.

• BetMines Algorithm prediction for Manchester United vs Athletic Club predicts 1 at 44%
• BetMines Algorithm prediction for Manchester United vs Athletic Club predicts X at 25%
• BetMines Algorithm prediction for Manchester United vs Athletic Club predicts 2 at 30%

Manchester United vs Athletic Club Predicted Lineups

MANCHESTER UNITED (3-4-2-1): Onana; Lindelöf, Maguire, Yoro; Mazraoui, Casemiro, Ugarte, Dorgu; Garnacho, Fernandes; Højlund. Coach: Amorim

ATHLETIC CLUB (4-2-3-1): Agirrezabala; de Marcos, Gorosabel, Alvarez, Berchiche; Galarreta, Jauregizar; Iñaki Williams, Berenguer, Nico Williams, Sannadi. Coach: Valverde