Manchester United and Brighton & Hove Albion meet in the Carabao Cup on September 16, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 19:00 local time at Old Trafford. The teams approach the contest after sharply contrasting weekends. United suffered a 1-0 home defeat against Manchester City, whereas Brighton recorded an emphatic 5-0 away victory over Coventry City. Recent numbers point towards an entertaining cup fixture: four of the previous five meetings between these Premier League clubs produced goals from both sides, while their respective scoring averages across the last five matches add further attacking promise. United will be seeking an immediate response in front of their supporters, but a confident Brighton side arrives having scored at least three goals in four games this season.

Manchester United Recent Form and Key Statistics

Manchester United have recorded two wins, one draw and two defeats across their last five matches. During that sequence, they averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Those figures underline their ability to create and convert chances, but they also highlight the defensive vulnerability that Brighton will attempt to exploit.

United made an impressive start to their home schedule, scoring nine goals and conceding twice across games against Ipswich Town and Sabah. Their momentum was interrupted on September 13, however, when Manchester City left Old Trafford with a 1-0 victory despite playing most of the match with ten men. That result means the Red Devils have won only one of their last three games, increasing the importance of producing a stronger performance in this cup assignment.

The hosts have scored seven goals and conceded seven across their opening four league fixtures. Both teams found the net in two of United's last three games against English opposition, while their home matches have also featured a consistent second-half scoring pattern. At least one goal has been registered after the interval in each of Manchester United's last 13 home matches.

Michael Carrick's team will continue without Manuel Ugarte, Amad Diallo, Carlos Baleba and Matthijs de Ligt. Luke Shaw is also a fitness doubt after missing the defeat against Manchester City, with Patrick Dorgu available at left-back. Changes are considered likely, and Benjamin Sesko could be given an opportunity after scoring twice recently.

Brighton & Hove Albion Recent Form and Key Statistics

Brighton & Hove Albion enter the match with three victories, one draw and one defeat from their previous five outings. They have averaged an imposing 3.4 goals per game during that run while conceding only 1.0 per match. Their latest performance was the clearest demonstration of that attacking strength, as they defeated ten-man Coventry City 5-0 away from home on September 13.

The Coventry result was Brighton's fourth match of the season in which they scored at least three times. The Seagulls have suffered only one league defeat, against Chelsea, and they have also qualified for the league phase of the Conference League. Although the clean sheet at Coventry showed that they can control a game defensively, both sides scored in Brighton's two previous matches against English clubs. Two of their last three league fixtures also ended with each team on the scoresheet.

Brighton travel with several injury concerns. Jack Hinshelwood, who scored twice in the opening league victory over Aston Villa, is among those unavailable, alongside Ferguson, Mitoma and Minteh. Rutter, Azeez and Svoboda were absent from the Coventry game as well, yet the visitors still produced five unanswered goals. That result illustrates the scoring contribution Brighton were able to find despite those absences.

Pascal Gross offers another notable element to the visitors' attacking threat. Since returning to Brighton last season, he enters this fixture with a particularly strong record against United, having scored more goals against them than against any other opponent.

Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion Match Analysis

The available statistics suggest that this Carabao Cup match could contain chances at both ends. Manchester United's recent five-game average stands at 3.6 total goals per fixture, combining their 2.2 scored with 1.4 conceded. Brighton's corresponding numbers produce an average of 4.4 total goals, built around their outstanding attacking return of 3.4 per match.

The head-to-head record also indicates how competitive this matchup has been. From the summarized meetings, Manchester United have two wins and Brighton have three, with no draws. United averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded in that sample. Brighton won the latest encounter 3-0 on May 24, 2026, and they also eliminated Manchester United from last season's FA Cup on United's home ground.

While that most recent meeting did not feature goals for both teams, four of the last five games between the clubs did. This trend is supported by United's recurring defensive issues and Brighton's current output in front of goal. At the same time, the hosts have demonstrated considerable scoring potential at Old Trafford and will be motivated to respond after being held scoreless by Manchester City.

The statistical probabilities reinforce the expectation of an open contest. Over 2.5 goals is assessed at 65%, compared with 35% for the under, while the probability of both teams scoring is 62%. Manchester United have a 43% win probability, Brighton stand at 35%, and the draw is rated at 23%. Those percentages give the home side a narrow edge in the result market, but the stronger overall theme concerns the likelihood of each attack making an impact.

Brighton's five-goal display at Coventry gives the visitors clear momentum, whereas United's home scoring record before the derby defeat provides reason to expect a reaction. With both teams producing strong attacking averages and four of the previous five head-to-head games featuring goals at each end, the goal-based evidence offers the most coherent direction for this Carabao Cup preview.

Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 62% probability.